Unsustainable - Goalies - December 22, 2016

December 22, 2016

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

CSV% - career save percentage
SA - shots against
EVSA - shots against at even strength
PKSA - shots against on the penalty kill
SV% - current save percentage
EVSV% - current even strength save percentage
PKSV% - current save percentage on the penalty kill
ASV% - save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable EVSV%
PlayerCSV%SAEVSAPKSASV%EVSV%PKSV%ASV%
Aaron Dell0.9259135118120.92590.95760.75000.9426
Devan Dubnyk0.91747506241180.94800.95670.89830.9419
Anders Nilsson0.9061330252740.93330.95630.85140.9416
Juuse Saros0.9383139110260.94960.95450.92310.9401
Corey Crawford0.91856145001000.92670.95400.81000.9397
Carey Price0.92056845511180.93570.95100.86440.9373
Matt Murray0.9341449354670.93760.94630.89550.9336
Curtis McElhinney0.9049160141190.93750.94330.89470.9311

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that we've added goalies at the bottom of this list who are suffering from unreasonably low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable PKSV%
PlayerCSV%SAEVSAPKSASV%EVSV%PKSV%ASV%
Jeff Zatkoff0.9115145116250.88970.87930.96000.8801
Eddie Lack0.910310481220.85580.82720.95450.8385
Jhonas Enroth0.9093141117210.87230.85470.95240.8605
Cam Ward0.9099674584810.91540.91440.93830.9081
Philipp Grubauer0.9231198156390.93430.93590.92310.9253
Juuse Saros0.9383139110260.94960.95450.92310.9401
Jake Allen0.91347195741330.90680.90770.91730.9027
Jimmy Howard0.9155426347590.93430.93660.91530.9258
Tuukka Rask0.92446595381050.92870.93310.91430.9230
Michael Hutchinson0.9098328255620.89630.90590.83870.9013
Brian Elliott0.9128413319780.88860.90600.82050.9014
Louis Domingue0.9083433350720.89840.91430.81940.9080
Corey Crawford0.91856145001000.92670.95400.81000.9397
Kari Lehtonen0.9125482396670.89420.91160.80600.9059
Thomas Greiss0.9173380333400.91840.93090.80000.9213
Michal Neuvirth0.9120177151230.85880.87420.78260.8760

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