Unsustainable - Goalies - December 15, 2016

December 15, 2016

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

CSV% - career save percentage
SA - shots against
EVSA - shots against at even strength
PKSA - shots against on the penalty kill
SV% - current save percentage
EVSV% - current even strength save percentage
PKSV% - current save percentage on the penalty kill
ASV% - save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable EVSV%
Aaron Dell0.9259135118120.92590.95760.75000.9426
Anders Nilsson0.9055308230740.93180.95650.85140.9417
Devan Dubnyk0.91716965801080.94680.95520.89810.9406
Corey Crawford0.91856145001000.92670.95400.81000.9397
Carey Price0.92066325121060.93990.95310.87740.9390
Matt Murray0.9326387304610.93540.94740.88520.9344
Scott Darling0.9243343301360.93290.94680.86110.9340
Antti Raanta0.9190322276400.94100.94200.92500.9302
Jimmy Howard0.9155380310520.93680.94190.90380.9301
Philipp Grubauer0.9236168133320.94050.93980.93750.9284

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that we've added goalies at the bottom of this list who are suffering from unreasonably low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable PKSV%
Jeff Zatkoff0.9109127100230.88190.87000.95650.8727
Eddie Lack0.910310481220.85580.82720.95450.8385
Jhonas Enroth0.9093141117210.87230.85470.95240.8605
Cam Ward0.9098624537790.91510.91250.94940.9066
Mike Smith0.9131524448700.92940.92860.94290.9194
Philipp Grubauer0.9236168133320.94050.93980.93750.9284
Antti Raanta0.9190322276400.94100.94200.92500.9302
Jake Allen0.91366204881220.90650.90570.91800.9012
Roberto Luongo0.9193612504910.91830.91870.91210.9115
Tuukka Rask0.92456285141020.92990.93580.91180.9252
Ryan Miller0.9148497430560.90950.90700.91070.9022
Michael Hutchinson0.9098328255620.89630.90590.83870.9013
Peter Budaj0.9032558462860.90680.91990.83720.9125
Antti Niemi0.9142446348790.90580.92240.83540.9145
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91195794601030.89980.91300.83500.9070
Louis Domingue0.9083433350720.89840.91430.81940.9080
Corey Crawford0.91856145001000.92670.95400.81000.9397
Kari Lehtonen0.9125482396670.89420.91160.80600.9059
Brian Elliott0.9127386298720.88600.90600.80560.9014
Michal Neuvirth0.9120177151230.85880.87420.78260.8760