Unsustainable - Goalies - November 9, 2017

November 09, 2017

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

CSV% - career save percentage
SA - shots against
EVSA - shots against at even strength
PKSA - shots against on the penalty kill
SV% - current save percentage
EVSV% - current even strength save percentage
PKSV% - current save percentage on the penalty kill
ASV% - save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable EVSV%
Michal Neuvirth0.9119180145310.92780.95170.87100.9379
Connor Hellebuyck0.9137342254790.93570.94880.88610.9356
Corey Crawford0.9190400319690.94500.94670.92750.9339
Petr Mrazek0.9134157126290.92360.94440.86210.9321
Braden Holtby0.9217355274730.92110.94160.86300.9298
Pekka Rinne0.9178349254700.93410.94090.90000.9293

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that we've added goalies at the bottom of this list who are suffering from unreasonably low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable PKSV%
Mike Condon0.908811894210.92370.91490.95240.9085
Jonathan Quick0.9164399304810.93730.93090.95060.9213
Alex Stalock0.912710772340.92520.91670.94120.9099
Martin Jones0.9167294207630.92180.91300.93650.9070
Tuukka Rask0.9223279221460.90320.90050.93480.8970
Corey Crawford0.9190400319690.94500.94670.92750.9339
Matt Murray0.9212404331640.90590.90030.92190.8969
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9173470383740.92770.92950.91890.9202
John Gibson0.9208409293970.91440.91130.91750.9056
Jimmy Howard0.9159385305720.92730.93110.91670.9215
Chad Johnson0.9131188144340.87770.88190.91180.8822
Cam Talbot0.9212397330590.90930.92120.83050.9135
Devan Dubnyk0.9158329281410.90270.91100.82930.9054
Ondrej Pavelec0.906711585290.88700.90590.82760.9013
Jacob Markstrom0.9067338275430.91720.93450.81400.9242
Jonathan Bernier0.9140155122250.88390.90980.80000.9045
Brian Elliott0.9128259215380.89190.91160.78950.9059
Louis Domingue0.9055194163250.85570.88960.68000.8883