Unsustainable - Goalies - November 30, 2017

November 30, 2017

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

CSV% - career save percentage
SA - shots against
EVSA - shots against at even strength
PKSA - shots against on the penalty kill
SV% - current save percentage
EVSV% - current even strength save percentage
PKSV% - current save percentage on the penalty kill
ASV% - save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable EVSV%
PlayerCSV%SAEVSAPKSASV%EVSV%PKSV%ASV%
Carter Hutton0.9126168137240.94640.95620.87500.9415
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9207601506820.93510.94270.89020.9307
Anton Khudobin0.9175308243570.93180.94240.87720.9304
Michal Neuvirth0.9116236191390.91530.94240.82050.9305
Darcy Kuemper0.9112174150170.93680.94000.94120.9285
Connor Hellebuyck0.91365914441270.92550.93920.88190.9279

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that we've added goalies at the bottom of this list who are suffering from unreasonably low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable PKSV%
PlayerCSV%SAEVSAPKSASV%EVSV%PKSV%ASV%
Aaron Dell0.9289198159310.92420.91820.93550.9112
Antti Raanta0.9166338279460.91420.91040.93480.9049
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.91916965701130.93250.93330.92920.9232
Corey Crawford0.91886254941100.93280.93520.92730.9247
Charlie Lindgren0.9288250205410.92400.92680.92680.9180
Jonathan Quick0.91646184851080.92880.92580.92590.9172
Martin Jones0.9177458338930.93010.92900.92470.9198
Jake Allen0.91415824721000.90720.92580.84000.9172
Philipp Grubauer0.9183236178500.88560.89890.84000.8957
Maxime Lagace0.8697307248530.86970.87900.83020.8799
Jonathan Bernier0.9141302232580.90070.92240.82760.9145
Ondrej Pavelec0.9066144114290.88890.90350.82760.8994
Michal Neuvirth0.9116236191390.91530.94240.82050.9305
Brian Elliott0.9129548455840.90510.92310.80950.9150
Anton Forsberg0.8891187153310.90370.92160.80650.9138
Jacob Markstrom0.9060515423610.90870.92670.80330.9179
Cam Talbot0.9201629530850.90300.91890.80000.9117
Laurent Brossoit0.9021134102250.88060.90200.80000.8982
Juuse Saros0.9119146119260.86990.89080.76920.8892
Louis Domingue0.9055194163250.85570.88960.68000.8883
Antti Niemi0.9119155131220.84520.87790.63640.8789

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