Unsustainable - Goalies - December 7, 2017

December 07, 2017

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

CSV% - career save percentage
SA - shots against
EVSA - shots against at even strength
PKSA - shots against on the penalty kill
SV% - current save percentage
EVSV% - current even strength save percentage
PKSV% - current save percentage on the penalty kill
ASV% - save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable EVSV%
Ryan Miller0.9152217184290.94470.95650.86210.9417
Darcy Kuemper0.9121214181240.94390.95030.91670.9367
Michal Neuvirth0.9116236191390.91530.94240.82050.9305
Carter Hutton0.9121189153290.93650.94120.89660.9295

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that we've added goalies at the bottom of this list who are suffering from unreasonably low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable PKSV%
Aaron Dell0.9313238192380.93280.92710.94740.9182
Antti Raanta0.9166338279460.91420.91040.93480.9049
Jonathan Quick0.91656935501160.92930.92550.93100.9169
Corey Crawford0.91876605211150.93030.93280.93040.9228
Charlie Lindgren0.9288250205410.92400.92680.92680.9180
Tuukka Rask0.9221425342670.90590.90350.92540.8994
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.91937546211180.93240.93400.92370.9237
Keith Kinkaid0.9102251219250.89640.89500.92000.8926
Darcy Kuemper0.9121214181240.94390.95030.91670.9367
Petr Mrazek0.9117248208370.89110.90870.83780.9035
Anton Forsberg0.8918254207410.90550.91790.82930.9109
Ondrej Pavelec0.9067188152350.89890.91450.82860.9082
Jonathan Bernier0.9137311241580.89070.90870.82760.9036
Brian Elliott0.9131646537910.90870.92360.82420.9155
Jacob Markstrom0.9074581483670.91740.93370.82090.9235
Michal Neuvirth0.9116236191390.91530.94240.82050.9305
Scott Darling0.9183539465600.90170.91180.81670.9061
Kari Lehtonen0.9120190151260.90000.92050.80770.9130
Maxime Lagace0.8663344275620.86630.88000.80650.8807
Juuse Saros0.9143191160300.89010.90630.80000.9016
Cam Talbot0.9201629530850.90300.91890.80000.9117
Laurent Brossoit0.8967235182440.87660.90110.79550.8975
Louis Domingue0.9055194163250.85570.88960.68000.8883
Antti Niemi0.9119155131220.84520.87790.63640.8789