Unsustainable - Goalies - December 14, 2017 | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Unsustainable - Goalies - December 14, 2017

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Ryan Miller 0.9152 217 184 29 0.9447 0.9565 0.8621 0.9417
Darcy Kuemper 0.9123 254 212 31 0.9409 0.9481 0.9032 0.9350
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Carter Hutton 0.9121 189 153 29 0.9365 0.9412 0.8966 0.9295

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9334 263 204 46 0.9392 0.9314 0.9565 0.9217
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9122 171 146 23 0.9298 0.9247 0.9565 0.9163
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9137 195 162 22 0.9026 0.8951 0.9545 0.8927
Antti Raanta 0.9173 372 308 49 0.9194 0.9156 0.9388 0.9091
Keith Kinkaid 0.9095 290 251 30 0.8931 0.8884 0.9333 0.8874
Corey Crawford 0.9190 757 607 124 0.9326 0.9357 0.9274 0.9251
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 205 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9268 0.9180
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9196 806 672 118 0.9330 0.9345 0.9237 0.9242
Tuukka Rask 0.9224 510 415 76 0.9137 0.9157 0.9211 0.9091
Jonathan Quick 0.9163 753 605 119 0.9256 0.9256 0.9160 0.9171
John Gibson 0.9214 819 624 167 0.9206 0.9215 0.9102 0.9138
Jonathan Bernier 0.9140 351 278 60 0.9003 0.9173 0.8333 0.9104
Mike Condon 0.9073 291 236 42 0.9003 0.9110 0.8333 0.9054
Brian Elliott 0.9133 705 583 102 0.9121 0.9262 0.8333 0.9176
Anton Forsberg 0.8918 254 207 41 0.9055 0.9179 0.8293 0.9109
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 306 69 0.8721 0.8824 0.8261 0.8825
Scott Darling 0.9174 583 506 62 0.8988 0.9071 0.8226 0.9023
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Jacob Markstrom 0.9065 630 519 80 0.9111 0.9287 0.8125 0.9195
Kari Lehtonen 0.9122 275 218 42 0.9127 0.9358 0.8095 0.9252
Juuse Saros 0.9143 191 160 30 0.8901 0.9063 0.8000 0.9016
Cam Talbot 0.9201 629 530 85 0.9030 0.9189 0.8000 0.9117
Laurent Brossoit 0.9011 311 250 48 0.8907 0.9120 0.7917 0.9062
Peter Budaj 0.9044 143 111 25 0.8811 0.9189 0.7200 0.9117
Louis Domingue 0.9055 194 163 25 0.8557 0.8896 0.6800 0.8883
Antti Niemi 0.9120 181 152 27 0.8564 0.8882 0.6667 0.8872
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill