Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	PKSA	SV%	EVSV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Ryan Miller	0.9152	217	184	29	0.9447	0.9565	0.8621	0.9417
Darcy Kuemper	0.9123	254	212	31	0.9409	0.9481	0.9032	0.9350
Michal Neuvirth	0.9116	236	191	39	0.9153	0.9424	0.8205	0.9305
Carter Hutton	0.9121	189	153	29	0.9365	0.9412	0.8966	0.9295

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	PKSA	SV%	EVSV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Aaron Dell	0.9334	263	204	46	0.9392	0.9314	0.9565	0.9217
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9122	171	146	23	0.9298	0.9247	0.9565	0.9163
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9137	195	162	22	0.9026	0.8951	0.9545	0.8927
Antti Raanta	0.9173	372	308	49	0.9194	0.9156	0.9388	0.9091
Keith Kinkaid	0.9095	290	251	30	0.8931	0.8884	0.9333	0.8874
Corey Crawford	0.9190	757	607	124	0.9326	0.9357	0.9274	0.9251
Charlie Lindgren	0.9288	250	205	41	0.9240	0.9268	0.9268	0.9180
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9196	806	672	118	0.9330	0.9345	0.9237	0.9242
Tuukka Rask	0.9224	510	415	76	0.9137	0.9157	0.9211	0.9091
Jonathan Quick	0.9163	753	605	119	0.9256	0.9256	0.9160	0.9171
John Gibson	0.9214	819	624	167	0.9206	0.9215	0.9102	0.9138
Jonathan Bernier	0.9140	351	278	60	0.9003	0.9173	0.8333	0.9104
Mike Condon	0.9073	291	236	42	0.9003	0.9110	0.8333	0.9054
Brian Elliott	0.9133	705	583	102	0.9121	0.9262	0.8333	0.9176
Anton Forsberg	0.8918	254	207	41	0.9055	0.9179	0.8293	0.9109
Maxime Lagace	0.8721	383	306	69	0.8721	0.8824	0.8261	0.8825
Scott Darling	0.9174	583	506	62	0.8988	0.9071	0.8226	0.9023
Michal Neuvirth	0.9116	236	191	39	0.9153	0.9424	0.8205	0.9305
Jacob Markstrom	0.9065	630	519	80	0.9111	0.9287	0.8125	0.9195
Kari Lehtonen	0.9122	275	218	42	0.9127	0.9358	0.8095	0.9252
Juuse Saros	0.9143	191	160	30	0.8901	0.9063	0.8000	0.9016
Cam Talbot	0.9201	629	530	85	0.9030	0.9189	0.8000	0.9117
Laurent Brossoit	0.9011	311	250	48	0.8907	0.9120	0.7917	0.9062
Peter Budaj	0.9044	143	111	25	0.8811	0.9189	0.7200	0.9117
Louis Domingue	0.9055	194	163	25	0.8557	0.8896	0.6800	0.8883
Antti Niemi	0.9120	181	152	27	0.8564	0.8882	0.6667	0.8872