Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	PKSA	SV%	EVSV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Ryan Miller	0.9151	250	213	32	0.9360	0.9484	0.8438	0.9352
Carter Hutton	0.9139	270	207	49	0.9481	0.9469	0.9388	0.9340
Michal Neuvirth	0.9116	236	191	39	0.9153	0.9424	0.8205	0.9305
Darcy Kuemper	0.9119	287	235	39	0.9338	0.9404	0.8974	0.9289
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9198	875	729	130	0.9326	0.9396	0.8923	0.9283

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	PKSA	SV%	EVSV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9147	236	200	25	0.9110	0.9050	0.9600	0.9006
Aaron Dell	0.9337	297	235	49	0.9394	0.9319	0.9592	0.9221
Carter Hutton	0.9139	270	207	49	0.9481	0.9469	0.9388	0.9340
Keith Kinkaid	0.9095	290	251	30	0.8931	0.8884	0.9333	0.8874
Antti Raanta	0.9168	478	399	59	0.9163	0.9148	0.9322	0.9084
Charlie Lindgren	0.9288	250	205	41	0.9240	0.9268	0.9268	0.9180
Corey Crawford	0.9192	813	656	128	0.9348	0.9390	0.9219	0.9278
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	234	196	36	0.9316	0.9337	0.9167	0.9235
Jonathan Quick	0.9164	817	646	141	0.9266	0.9272	0.9149	0.9184
John Gibson	0.9212	908	705	175	0.9196	0.9191	0.9143	0.9119
James Reimer	0.9141	646	496	138	0.9009	0.8972	0.9130	0.8944
Jonathan Bernier	0.9135	382	307	62	0.8927	0.9055	0.8387	0.9010
Mike Condon	0.9073	291	236	42	0.9003	0.9110	0.8333	0.9054
Kari Lehtonen	0.9121	300	232	53	0.9067	0.9267	0.8302	0.9179
Anton Forsberg	0.8918	254	207	41	0.9055	0.9179	0.8293	0.9109
Brian Elliott	0.9133	806	670	110	0.9119	0.9254	0.8273	0.9169
Maxime Lagace	0.8721	383	306	69	0.8721	0.8824	0.8261	0.8825
Petr Mrazek	0.9115	297	249	45	0.8923	0.9116	0.8222	0.9059
Jacob Markstrom	0.9057	686	562	90	0.9067	0.9217	0.8222	0.9139
Michal Neuvirth	0.9116	236	191	39	0.9153	0.9424	0.8205	0.9305
Scott Darling	0.9163	655	563	75	0.8962	0.9076	0.8133	0.9027
Cam Talbot	0.9199	681	572	93	0.9031	0.9178	0.8065	0.9108
Laurent Brossoit	0.8985	334	270	50	0.8862	0.9111	0.7600	0.9055
Peter Budaj	0.9043	180	142	31	0.8778	0.9155	0.7097	0.9090
Louis Domingue	0.9055	194	163	25	0.8557	0.8896	0.6800	0.8883
Antti Niemi	0.9120	181	152	27	0.8564	0.8882	0.6667	0.8872