Unsustainable - Goalies - December 21, 2017 | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Unsustainable - Goalies - December 21, 2017

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Ryan Miller 0.9151 250 213 32 0.9360 0.9484 0.8438 0.9352
Carter Hutton 0.9139 270 207 49 0.9481 0.9469 0.9388 0.9340
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Darcy Kuemper 0.9119 287 235 39 0.9338 0.9404 0.8974 0.9289
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9198 875 729 130 0.9326 0.9396 0.8923 0.9283

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9147 236 200 25 0.9110 0.9050 0.9600 0.9006
Aaron Dell 0.9337 297 235 49 0.9394 0.9319 0.9592 0.9221
Carter Hutton 0.9139 270 207 49 0.9481 0.9469 0.9388 0.9340
Keith Kinkaid 0.9095 290 251 30 0.8931 0.8884 0.9333 0.8874
Antti Raanta 0.9168 478 399 59 0.9163 0.9148 0.9322 0.9084
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 205 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9268 0.9180
Corey Crawford 0.9192 813 656 128 0.9348 0.9390 0.9219 0.9278
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9123 234 196 36 0.9316 0.9337 0.9167 0.9235
Jonathan Quick 0.9164 817 646 141 0.9266 0.9272 0.9149 0.9184
John Gibson 0.9212 908 705 175 0.9196 0.9191 0.9143 0.9119
James Reimer 0.9141 646 496 138 0.9009 0.8972 0.9130 0.8944
Jonathan Bernier 0.9135 382 307 62 0.8927 0.9055 0.8387 0.9010
Mike Condon 0.9073 291 236 42 0.9003 0.9110 0.8333 0.9054
Kari Lehtonen 0.9121 300 232 53 0.9067 0.9267 0.8302 0.9179
Anton Forsberg 0.8918 254 207 41 0.9055 0.9179 0.8293 0.9109
Brian Elliott 0.9133 806 670 110 0.9119 0.9254 0.8273 0.9169
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 306 69 0.8721 0.8824 0.8261 0.8825
Petr Mrazek 0.9115 297 249 45 0.8923 0.9116 0.8222 0.9059
Jacob Markstrom 0.9057 686 562 90 0.9067 0.9217 0.8222 0.9139
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Scott Darling 0.9163 655 563 75 0.8962 0.9076 0.8133 0.9027
Cam Talbot 0.9199 681 572 93 0.9031 0.9178 0.8065 0.9108
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 270 50 0.8862 0.9111 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9043 180 142 31 0.8778 0.9155 0.7097 0.9090
Louis Domingue 0.9055 194 163 25 0.8557 0.8896 0.6800 0.8883
Antti Niemi 0.9120 181 152 27 0.8564 0.8882 0.6667 0.8872
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill