Unsustainable - Goalies - January 4, 2018 | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Unsustainable - Goalies - January 4, 2018

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Ryan Miller 0.9151 307 256 0.9349 0.9492
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 247 198 0.9150 0.9444
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9216 1004 823 0.9373 0.9441
Carter Hutton 0.9141 323 249 0.9443 0.9438
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9126 317 267 0.9432 0.9438
Darcy Kuemper 0.9119 287 235 0.9338 0.9404

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9319 378 61 0.9339 0.9508 0.9181
Keith Kinkaid 0.9098 319 38 0.8966 0.9474 0.8884
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9126 317 47 0.9432 0.9362 0.9316
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9135 271 30 0.9041 0.9333 0.8963
Carter Hutton 0.9141 323 57 0.9443 0.9298 0.9316
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Jonathan Quick 0.9167 976 166 0.9293 0.9217 0.9199
Semyon Varlamov 0.9155 814 149 0.9115 0.9195 0.9066
James Reimer 0.9149 810 153 0.9123 0.9150 0.9051
John Gibson 0.9217 1012 194 0.9219 0.9124 0.9146
Tuukka Rask 0.9229 702 102 0.9245 0.9118 0.9209
Antti Raanta 0.9161 548 67 0.9124 0.9104 0.9072
Mike Condon 0.9070 388 66 0.8995 0.8333 0.9060
Kari Lehtonen 0.9121 300 53 0.9067 0.8302 0.9179
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Brian Elliott 0.9132 945 125 0.9111 0.8240 0.9176
Scott Darling 0.9161 684 79 0.8962 0.8228 0.9018
Petr Mrazek 0.9115 297 45 0.8923 0.8222 0.9059
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 247 43 0.9150 0.8140 0.9321
Jacob Markstrom 0.9055 827 110 0.9057 0.8091 0.9144
Cam Talbot 0.9193 893 132 0.9026 0.8030 0.9117
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Antti Niemi 0.9120 215 33 0.8651 0.6970 0.8917
Louis Domingue 0.9055 194 25 0.8557 0.6800 0.8883
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill