Unsustainable - Goalies - January 4, 2018
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.
Even-strength Save Percentage
We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.
Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data
Penalty Kill Save Percentage
Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.
Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data
- Career Save Percentage
- Shots against
- Even-strength shots against
- Shots against while on the penalty kill
- 2017-2018 save percentage
- 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
- 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
- 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill