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Unsustainable - Goalies - January 12, 2018

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Michal Neuvirth 0.9119 278 222 0.9209 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9151 307 256 0.9349 0.9492
Carter Hutton 0.9143 401 316 0.9401 0.9462
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9127 385 327 0.9455 0.9450
Darcy Kuemper 0.9119 287 235 0.9338 0.9404

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Keith Kinkaid 0.9098 319 38 0.8966 0.9474 0.8884
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9127 385 55 0.9455 0.9455 0.9325
Aaron Dell 0.9287 421 65 0.9264 0.9385 0.9129
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9135 271 30 0.9041 0.9333 0.8963
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Jonathan Quick 0.9165 1037 175 0.9257 0.9200 0.9167
Semyon Varlamov 0.9155 814 149 0.9115 0.9195 0.9066
John Gibson 0.9220 1077 207 0.9229 0.9179 0.9147
Tristan Jarry 0.9165 382 59 0.9188 0.9153 0.9095
Antti Raanta 0.9169 612 69 0.9167 0.9130 0.9108
Thomas Greiss 0.9123 591 85 0.8816 0.8353 0.8876
Kari Lehtonen 0.9121 300 53 0.9067 0.8302 0.9179
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Scott Darling 0.9156 740 85 0.8959 0.8235 0.9011
Petr Mrazek 0.9108 321 45 0.8847 0.8222 0.8975
Jacob Markstrom 0.9060 899 117 0.9077 0.8205 0.9143
Michal Neuvirth 0.9119 278 50 0.9209 0.8200 0.9369
Brian Elliott 0.9130 1007 126 0.9096 0.8175 0.9158
Jeff Glass 0.9079 152 21 0.9079 0.8095 0.9150
Cam Talbot 0.9189 999 143 0.9019 0.8042 0.9102
Mike Condon 0.9062 405 70 0.8938 0.8000 0.9059
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Louis Domingue 0.9061 230 33 0.8696 0.7576 0.8929
Al Montoya 0.9085 116 24 0.8707 0.7500 0.8948
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Antti Niemi 0.9120 215 33 0.8651 0.6970 0.8917
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill