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Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Carter Hutton 0.9159 527 427 0.9431 0.9485
Michal Neuvirth 0.9119 368 301 0.9185 0.9435
Ryan Miller 0.9151 340 279 0.9294 0.9427
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 556 464 0.9424 0.9418

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Keith Kinkaid 0.9088 371 44 0.8922 0.9545 0.8827
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9147 307 35 0.9121 0.9429 0.9022
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 556 81 0.9424 0.9383 0.9300
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Carter Hutton 0.9159 527 77 0.9431 0.9221 0.9353
Tristan Jarry 0.9175 472 75 0.9195 0.9200 0.9108
Semyon Varlamov 0.9155 814 149 0.9115 0.9195 0.9066
Aaron Dell 0.9232 587 85 0.9165 0.9176 0.9084
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9153 1241 229 0.9243 0.9127 0.9184
Thomas Greiss 0.9125 647 94 0.8856 0.8404 0.8908
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Scott Wedgewood 0.9057 499 40 0.8938 0.8250 0.8977
Michal Neuvirth 0.9119 368 56 0.9185 0.8214 0.9313
Jacob Markstrom 0.9061 1042 133 0.9079 0.8120 0.9146
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1106 143 0.9078 0.8112 0.9158
Scott Darling 0.9143 778 89 0.8920 0.8090 0.8988
Cam Talbot 0.9185 1124 162 0.9012 0.8086 0.9090
Mike Condon 0.9067 485 74 0.8990 0.7838 0.9131
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Louis Domingue 0.9062 263 39 0.8745 0.7436 0.8992
Al Montoya 0.9090 147 27 0.8912 0.7407 0.9145
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Antti Niemi 0.9120 241 39 0.8714 0.7179 0.8954
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill