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Buy-Low and Sell-High

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Carter Hutton 0.9165 561 456 0.9447 0.9518
Ryan Miller 0.9151 378 303 0.9286 0.9439
Darcy Kuemper 0.9134 394 315 0.9391 0.9429
Curtis McElhinney 0.9071 292 233 0.9315 0.9399
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 617 514 0.9417 0.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 617 92 0.9417 0.9457 0.9283
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9147 307 35 0.9121 0.9429 0.9022
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Tristan Jarry 0.9175 472 75 0.9195 0.9200 0.9108
Semyon Varlamov 0.9155 814 149 0.9115 0.9195 0.9066
Darcy Kuemper 0.9134 394 61 0.9391 0.9180 0.9308
Aaron Dell 0.9232 587 85 0.9165 0.9176 0.9084
Keith Kinkaid 0.9091 424 60 0.8962 0.9167 0.8900
Carter Hutton 0.9165 561 81 0.9447 0.9136 0.9379
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9152 1272 233 0.9237 0.9099 0.9191
Philipp Grubauer 0.9214 450 85 0.9156 0.8353 0.9241
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9199 1314 174 0.9209 0.8333 0.9241
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Scott Darling 0.9140 816 94 0.8922 0.8191 0.8979
Jacob Markstrom 0.9062 1100 143 0.9082 0.8182 0.9142
Scott Wedgewood 0.9045 523 43 0.8929 0.8140 0.8976
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1106 143 0.9078 0.8112 0.9158
Cam Talbot 0.9185 1124 162 0.9012 0.8086 0.9090
Michal Neuvirth 0.9114 388 59 0.9098 0.7966 0.9262
Mike Condon 0.9073 516 78 0.9031 0.7949 0.9153
Louis Domingue 0.9064 300 47 0.8800 0.7660 0.9018
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Antti Niemi 0.9120 241 39 0.8714 0.7179 0.8954
Al Montoya 0.9087 178 28 0.8876 0.7143 0.9159
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill