Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Carter Hutton 0.9160 676 551 0.9379 0.9437
Curtis McElhinney 0.9074 337 275 0.9318 0.9418
Darcy Kuemper 0.9133 516 421 0.9322 0.9406

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9127 372 46 0.9032 0.9348 0.8943
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Tristan Jarry 0.9195 509 82 0.9214 0.9268 0.9117
Aaron Dell 0.9201 694 100 0.9121 0.9200 0.9034
Carter Hutton 0.9160 676 98 0.9379 0.9184 0.9315
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 877 117 0.9304 0.9145 0.9216
Semyon Varlamov 0.9156 1056 174 0.9129 0.9138 0.9079
John Gibson 0.9226 1459 262 0.9246 0.9122 0.9178
Juuse Saros 0.9237 555 90 0.9261 0.9111 0.9190
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9151 1491 288 0.9222 0.9097 0.9172
Petr Mrazek 0.9127 650 92 0.9108 0.8370 0.9159
Anders Nilsson 0.9081 677 116 0.9069 0.8362 0.9140
Philipp Grubauer 0.9212 560 96 0.9161 0.8333 0.9230
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9197 1520 195 0.9191 0.8308 0.9222
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Jacob Markstrom 0.9061 1244 165 0.9076 0.8242 0.9127
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Scott Darling 0.9133 860 94 0.8907 0.8191 0.8961
Cam Talbot 0.9182 1418 202 0.9034 0.8168 0.9098
Michal Neuvirth 0.9118 519 63 0.9152 0.8095 0.9239
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Eddie Lack 0.9089 177 37 0.8701 0.7838 0.9028
Antti Niemi 0.9121 349 62 0.8883 0.7742 0.9052
Mike Condon 0.9068 628 85 0.9013 0.7647 0.9154
Louis Domingue 0.9057 377 59 0.8806 0.7627 0.9010
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Al Montoya 0.9082 207 28 0.8792 0.7143 0.9026
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill