Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Carter Hutton0.91606765510.93790.9437
Curtis McElhinney0.90743372750.93180.9418
Darcy Kuemper0.91335164210.93220.9406

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo0.9127372460.90320.93480.8943
Charlie Lindgren0.9288250410.92400.92680.9180
Tristan Jarry0.9195509820.92140.92680.9117
Aaron Dell0.92016941000.91210.92000.9034
Carter Hutton0.9160676980.93790.91840.9315
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91298771170.93040.91450.9216
Semyon Varlamov0.915610561740.91290.91380.9079
John Gibson0.922614592620.92460.91220.9178
Juuse Saros0.9237555900.92610.91110.9190
Connor Hellebuyck0.915114912880.92220.90970.9172
Petr Mrazek0.9127650920.91080.83700.9159
Anders Nilsson0.90816771160.90690.83620.9140
Philipp Grubauer0.9212560960.91610.83330.9230
Sergei Bobrovsky0.919715201950.91910.83080.9222
Maxime Lagace0.8721383690.87210.82610.8825
Jacob Markstrom0.906112441650.90760.82420.9127
Scott Wedgewood0.9033587510.89270.82350.8981
Scott Darling0.9133860940.89070.81910.8961
Cam Talbot0.918214182020.90340.81680.9098
Michal Neuvirth0.9118519630.91520.80950.9239
Brian Elliott0.912811891520.90830.80920.9169
Eddie Lack0.9089177370.87010.78380.9028
Antti Niemi0.9121349620.88830.77420.9052
Mike Condon0.9068628850.90130.76470.9154
Louis Domingue0.9057377590.88060.76270.9010
Laurent Brossoit0.8985334500.88620.76000.9055
Peter Budaj0.9042213420.87790.73810.9083
Al Montoya0.9082207280.87920.71430.9026

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2017-2018 save percentage

EVSV%: 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill