Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Curtis McElhinney 0.9076 377 308 0.9310 0.9416
Pekka Rinne 0.9185 1540 1242 0.9279 0.9396
Philipp Grubauer 0.9228 645 526 0.9225 0.9392
Darcy Kuemper 0.9129 596 477 0.9279 0.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9129 444 51 0.9054 0.9216 0.8998
Aaron Dell 0.9210 708 100 0.9138 0.9200 0.9051
Tristan Jarry 0.9127 651 99 0.9140 0.9192 0.9058
John Gibson 0.9233 1571 277 0.9268 0.9170 0.9191
Carter Hutton 0.9157 771 108 0.9339 0.9167 0.9274
Keith Kinkaid 0.9093 791 100 0.9027 0.9100 0.8963
Casey DeSmith 0.9134 231 31 0.9134 0.8387 0.9127
Maxime Lagace 0.8717 413 79 0.8717 0.8354 0.8807
Philipp Grubauer 0.9228 645 103 0.9225 0.8350 0.9279
Anders Nilsson 0.9069 724 120 0.9019 0.8333 0.9089
Petr Mrazek 0.9115 829 112 0.9047 0.8304 0.9099
Cam Talbot 0.9178 1598 223 0.9036 0.8296 0.9081
Jacob Markstrom 0.9068 1437 193 0.9095 0.8290 0.9141
Antti Niemi 0.9125 466 98 0.9034 0.8265 0.9138
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Scott Darling 0.9124 932 101 0.8895 0.8218 0.8943
Michal Neuvirth 0.9118 519 63 0.9152 0.8095 0.9239
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Eddie Lack 0.9089 177 37 0.8701 0.7838 0.9028
Mike Condon 0.9067 677 92 0.9010 0.7826 0.9129
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Louis Domingue 0.9054 412 62 0.8811 0.7581 0.9011
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Al Montoya 0.9080 253 30 0.8814 0.7000 0.9025
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill