Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Christopher Gibson 0.9264 138 117 0.9565 0.9573
Pekka Rinne 0.9186 1606 1295 0.9290 0.9405
Philipp Grubauer 0.9237 725 600 0.9255 0.9400

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Christopher Gibson 0.9264 138 21 0.9565 0.9524 0.9423
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9292 212 30 0.9292 0.9333 0.9194
Aaron Dell 0.9210 708 100 0.9138 0.9200 0.9051
John Gibson 0.9230 1654 279 0.9256 0.9176 0.9182
Carter Hutton 0.9157 771 108 0.9339 0.9167 0.9274
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9166 1776 333 0.9245 0.9129 0.9185
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9120 471 56 0.9023 0.9107 0.8980
Cam Talbot 0.9185 1694 230 0.9073 0.8348 0.9106
Antti Niemi 0.9127 538 113 0.9089 0.8319 0.9186
Jacob Markstrom 0.9072 1498 204 0.9105 0.8284 0.9153
Maxime Lagace 0.8674 430 81 0.8674 0.8272 0.8775
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Petr Mrazek 0.9117 886 123 0.9063 0.8211 0.9127
Scott Darling 0.9117 977 104 0.8884 0.8173 0.8937
Michal Neuvirth 0.9118 519 63 0.9152 0.8095 0.9239
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Casey DeSmith 0.9141 291 41 0.9141 0.8049 0.9184
Mike Condon 0.9072 760 102 0.9039 0.7843 0.9151
Eddie Lack 0.9089 177 37 0.8701 0.7838 0.9028
J-F Berube 0.8999 208 31 0.8990 0.7742 0.9165
Louis Domingue 0.9057 441 67 0.8844 0.7612 0.9037
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9041 217 42 0.8756 0.7381 0.9052
Al Montoya 0.9079 293 34 0.8840 0.7059 0.9033
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill