Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 15, 2018 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Christopher Gibson	0.9264	138	117	0.9565	0.9573
Pekka Rinne	0.9186	1606	1295	0.9290	0.9405
Philipp Grubauer	0.9237	725	600	0.9255	0.9400

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Christopher Gibson	0.9264	138	21	0.9565	0.9524	0.9423
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9292	212	30	0.9292	0.9333	0.9194
Aaron Dell	0.9210	708	100	0.9138	0.9200	0.9051
John Gibson	0.9230	1654	279	0.9256	0.9176	0.9182
Carter Hutton	0.9157	771	108	0.9339	0.9167	0.9274
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9166	1776	333	0.9245	0.9129	0.9185
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9120	471	56	0.9023	0.9107	0.8980
Cam Talbot	0.9185	1694	230	0.9073	0.8348	0.9106
Antti Niemi	0.9127	538	113	0.9089	0.8319	0.9186
Jacob Markstrom	0.9072	1498	204	0.9105	0.8284	0.9153
Maxime Lagace	0.8674	430	81	0.8674	0.8272	0.8775
Scott Wedgewood	0.9033	587	51	0.8927	0.8235	0.8981
Petr Mrazek	0.9117	886	123	0.9063	0.8211	0.9127
Scott Darling	0.9117	977	104	0.8884	0.8173	0.8937
Michal Neuvirth	0.9118	519	63	0.9152	0.8095	0.9239
Brian Elliott	0.9128	1189	152	0.9083	0.8092	0.9169
Casey DeSmith	0.9141	291	41	0.9141	0.8049	0.9184
Mike Condon	0.9072	760	102	0.9039	0.7843	0.9151
Eddie Lack	0.9089	177	37	0.8701	0.7838	0.9028
J-F Berube	0.8999	208	31	0.8990	0.7742	0.9165
Louis Domingue	0.9057	441	67	0.8844	0.7612	0.9037
Laurent Brossoit	0.8985	334	50	0.8862	0.7600	0.9055
Peter Budaj	0.9041	217	42	0.8756	0.7381	0.9052
Al Montoya	0.9079	293	34	0.8840	0.7059	0.9033

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2017-2018 save percentage

EVSV%: 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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