Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 15 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | 3 | 3 | 16 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 18.8 | 5.7 | 230 |
| Morgan Rielly | 3 | 10 | 23 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 4.3 | 202 |
| Kyle Palmieri | 7 | 0 | 18 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 38.9 | 12.9 | 201 |
| Auston Matthews | 10 | 6 | 22 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 45.5 | 17.2 | 164 |
| John Klingberg | 4 | 2 | 21 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 19.0 | 7.4 | 156 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 7 | 1 | 29 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 24.1 | 9.7 | 148 |
| David Pastrnak | 7 | 2 | 22 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 31.8 | 13.8 | 130 |
| Timo Meier | 3 | 1 | 16 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 18.8 | 8.7 | 116 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov | 4 | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 23.5 | 11.7 | 100 |
| Wayne Simmonds | 5 | 1 | 19 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 26.3 | 13.4 | 96 |
| Brendan Gallagher | 3 | 1 | 16 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 18.8 | 9.8 | 92 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 4 | 4 | 17 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 23.5 | 12.4 | 90 |
| Jonathan Toews | 5 | 4 | 19 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 26.3 | 14.2 | 86 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 6 | 3 | 19 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 31.6 | 17.0 | 86 |
| Mitchell Marner | 4 | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 21.1 | 11.6 | 82 |
| Alexander Radulov | 4 | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 25.0 | 14.1 | 77 | |
| Alex Ovechkin | 4 | 3 | 19 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 21.1 | 12.4 | 69 |
| Jake Guentzel | 4 | 0 | 15 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 26.7 | 15.7 | 69 |
| Evander Kane | 4 | 1 | 26 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 68 |
| John Tavares | 6 | 5 | 28 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 21.4 | 13.0 | 65 |
| Josh Anderson | 3 | 0 | 16 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 18.8 | 11.6 | 61 |
| Dylan Larkin | 3 | 2 | 21 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 58 |
| Filip Forsberg | 4 | 2 | 20 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 12.7 | 57 |
| Bo Horvat | 3 | 1 | 15 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 20.0 | 12.8 | 56 |
| Aleksander Barkov | 3 | 1 | 15 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 54 |
| Patrik Laine | 2 | 2 | 24 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 17.5 | -52 |
| Max Pacioretty | 1 | 0 | 19 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 11.0 | -52 |
| Rickard Rakell | 1 | 2 | 16 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 13.4 | -53 |
| Zach Parise | 1 | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 11.3 | -54 |
| Mikko Rantanen | 1 | 8 | 15 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 14.9 | -55 |
| Mika Zibanejad | 1 | 1 | 25 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 11.2 | -64 |
| Erik Karlsson | 0 | 3 | 18 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 6.8 | -100 |
| Jaccob Slavin | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -100 |
| Derek Stepan | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 9.9 | -100 |
| Richard Panik | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 11.7 | -100 |
| Keith Yandle | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | -100 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 0 | 4 | 16 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 10.5 | -100 |
| Shea Theodore | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
| Duncan Keith | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 0 | 3 | 15 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -100 |
| Justin Faulk | 0 | 4 | 21 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 6.1 | -100 |
| Gustav Nyquist | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 11.3 | -100 |
| Brent Burns | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 7.0 | -100 |
| Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 3 | 29 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 5.8 | -100 |
| Erik Johnson | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2018-2019 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
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