Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
John Gibson 0.9246 294 226 0.9490 0.9646
Pekka Rinne 0.9187 141 118 0.9291 0.9492
Semyon Varlamov 0.9171 235 163 0.9532 0.9448
Devan Dubnyk 0.9170 233 175 0.9442 0.9429
Robin Lehner 0.9157 175 137 0.9257 0.9416
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9193 227 188 0.9207 0.9415

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9182 187 47 0.9412 1.0000 0.9094
Semyon Varlamov 0.9171 235 67 0.9532 0.9701 0.9324
Louis Domingue 0.9075 76 22 0.9342 0.9545 0.9162
Devan Dubnyk 0.9170 233 47 0.9442 0.9362 0.9308
John Gibson 0.9246 294 59 0.9490 0.9153 0.9482
Antti Raanta 0.9214 158 23 0.9114 0.9130 0.9050
Tuukka Rask 0.9218 151 31 0.9007 0.8387 0.9129
Carter Hutton 0.9148 230 43 0.9087 0.8372 0.9178
Cam Talbot 0.9174 201 30 0.8905 0.8333 0.9004
Carey Price 0.9182 159 24 0.9057 0.8333 0.9089
Jack Campbell 0.9150 156 28 0.9167 0.8214 0.9249
Mike Smith 0.9127 165 28 0.8848 0.8214 0.8966
Anders Nilsson 0.9069 152 22 0.9145 0.8182 0.9199
Frederik Andersen 0.9178 250 27 0.9160 0.8148 0.9186
Brian Elliott 0.9123 204 37 0.8824 0.8108 0.9002
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9193 227 31 0.9207 0.8065 0.9297
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9192 179 27 0.8715 0.7778 0.8822
Cam Ward 0.9087 227 29 0.8855 0.7586 0.9008
Braden Holtby 0.9187 192 25 0.8854 0.7200 0.9007
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill