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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

October 25, 2018   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

John Gibson0.92462942260.94900.9646
Pekka Rinne0.91871411180.92910.9492
Semyon Varlamov0.91712351630.95320.9448
Devan Dubnyk0.91702331750.94420.9429
Robin Lehner0.91571751370.92570.9416
Henrik Lundqvist0.91932271880.92070.9415

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9182187470.94121.00000.9094
Semyon Varlamov0.9171235670.95320.97010.9324
Louis Domingue0.907576220.93420.95450.9162
Devan Dubnyk0.9170233470.94420.93620.9308
John Gibson0.9246294590.94900.91530.9482
Antti Raanta0.9214158230.91140.91300.9050
Tuukka Rask0.9218151310.90070.83870.9129
Carter Hutton0.9148230430.90870.83720.9178
Cam Talbot0.9174201300.89050.83330.9004
Carey Price0.9182159240.90570.83330.9089
Jack Campbell0.9150156280.91670.82140.9249
Mike Smith0.9127165280.88480.82140.8966
Anders Nilsson0.9069152220.91450.81820.9199
Frederik Andersen0.9178250270.91600.81480.9186
Brian Elliott0.9123204370.88240.81080.9002
Henrik Lundqvist0.9193227310.92070.80650.9297
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9192179270.87150.77780.8822
Cam Ward0.9087227290.88550.75860.9008
Braden Holtby0.9187192250.88540.72000.9007


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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