Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9162 190 150 0.9474 0.9600
David Rittich 0.9124 163 132 0.9387 0.9545
Pekka Rinne 0.9187 141 118 0.9291 0.9492
Semyon Varlamov 0.9171 262 181 0.9504 0.9448
John Gibson 0.9242 384 306 0.9375 0.9444

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9182 248 58 0.9355 0.9655 0.9144
Louis Domingue 0.9060 106 27 0.8868 0.9630 0.8767
Semyon Varlamov 0.9171 262 76 0.9504 0.9605 0.9323
Thomas Greiss 0.9129 150 21 0.9333 0.9524 0.9190
Corey Crawford 0.9187 176 39 0.9091 0.9487 0.8924
Devan Dubnyk 0.9170 319 67 0.9373 0.9403 0.9225
John Gibson 0.9242 384 68 0.9375 0.9265 0.9321
Ben Bishop 0.9187 265 27 0.9245 0.9259 0.9137
Alex Stalock 0.9104 95 24 0.8947 0.9167 0.8865
Martin Jones 0.9153 246 47 0.9024 0.9149 0.8911
Anders Nilsson 0.9068 181 25 0.9116 0.8400 0.9179
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9192 337 49 0.9169 0.8367 0.9219
Ryan Miller 0.9154 117 23 0.9316 0.8261 0.9421
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 233 34 0.8970 0.8235 0.9004
Brian Elliott 0.9123 253 49 0.8893 0.8163 0.9050
Frederik Andersen 0.9178 307 37 0.9186 0.8108 0.9228
Mike Smith 0.9125 238 38 0.8782 0.7895 0.8933
Cam Ward 0.9087 253 32 0.8893 0.7813 0.9011
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9193 203 27 0.8818 0.7778 0.8899
Cam Talbot 0.9176 293 39 0.9044 0.7692 0.9180
Braden Holtby 0.9187 223 29 0.8879 0.7241 0.9070
Petr Mrazek 0.9098 159 21 0.8868 0.6667 0.9155
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill