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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 1, 2018   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Jaroslav Halak0.91621901500.94740.9600
David Rittich0.91241631320.93870.9545
Pekka Rinne0.91871411180.92910.9492
Semyon Varlamov0.91712621810.95040.9448
John Gibson0.92423843060.93750.9444

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9182248580.93550.96550.9144
Louis Domingue0.9060106270.88680.96300.8767
Semyon Varlamov0.9171262760.95040.96050.9323
Thomas Greiss0.9129150210.93330.95240.9190
Corey Crawford0.9187176390.90910.94870.8924
Devan Dubnyk0.9170319670.93730.94030.9225
John Gibson0.9242384680.93750.92650.9321
Ben Bishop0.9187265270.92450.92590.9137
Alex Stalock0.910495240.89470.91670.8865
Martin Jones0.9153246470.90240.91490.8911
Anders Nilsson0.9068181250.91160.84000.9179
Henrik Lundqvist0.9192337490.91690.83670.9219
Ryan Miller0.9154117230.93160.82610.9421
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9129233340.89700.82350.9004
Brian Elliott0.9123253490.88930.81630.9050
Frederik Andersen0.9178307370.91860.81080.9228
Mike Smith0.9125238380.87820.78950.8933
Cam Ward0.9087253320.88930.78130.9011
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9193203270.88180.77780.8899
Cam Talbot0.9176293390.90440.76920.9180
Braden Holtby0.9187223290.88790.72410.9070
Petr Mrazek0.9098159210.88680.66670.9155

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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