Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Ryan Miller0.91551561250.93590.9680
Pekka Rinne0.91902352000.94890.9650
Jaroslav Halak0.91642301830.95220.9617
Thomas Greiss0.91352512070.94020.9469
David Rittich0.91001781460.92700.9452
John Gibson0.92394603660.93260.9399

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9185341730.93550.95890.9170
Semyon Varlamov0.9168332860.93370.94190.9201
Corey Crawford0.9186216480.90740.93750.8937
Devan Dubnyk0.9169357680.93000.92650.9180
Antti Raanta0.9223266370.92860.91890.9194
Alex Stalock0.910495240.89470.91670.8865
Casey DeSmith0.9241184240.92930.91670.9205
John Gibson0.9239460820.93260.91460.9285
Martin Jones0.9150297560.89900.91070.8893
Anders Nilsson0.9068181250.91160.84000.9179
Anton Khudobin0.9158126310.92860.83870.9417
Matt Murray0.9142281370.88610.83780.8973
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9129313430.90100.83720.9016
Joonas Korpisalo0.9079173240.88440.83330.8939
Philipp Grubauer0.9213168300.89290.83330.8954
Pekka Rinne0.9190235290.94890.82760.9485
Calvin Pickard0.9111137280.87590.82140.8861
Ryan Miller0.9155156280.93590.82140.9509
Brian Elliott0.9123280540.89290.81480.9083
David Rittich0.9100178270.92700.81480.9327
James Reimer0.9142183290.88520.79310.9009
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9195305380.90160.78950.9133
Mike Smith0.9123288420.87150.78570.8889
Cam Ward0.9087282360.88650.77780.9017
Cam Talbot0.9173316400.89870.75000.9139
Braden Holtby0.9187345330.89860.72730.9090
Curtis McElhinney0.9080121210.88430.71430.9047
Petr Mrazek0.9095184220.88040.63640.9126

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill