Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Ryan Miller 0.9155 156 125 0.9359 0.9680
Pekka Rinne 0.9190 235 200 0.9489 0.9650
Jaroslav Halak 0.9164 230 183 0.9522 0.9617
Thomas Greiss 0.9135 251 207 0.9402 0.9469
David Rittich 0.9100 178 146 0.9270 0.9452
John Gibson 0.9239 460 366 0.9326 0.9399

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9185 341 73 0.9355 0.9589 0.9170
Semyon Varlamov 0.9168 332 86 0.9337 0.9419 0.9201
Corey Crawford 0.9186 216 48 0.9074 0.9375 0.8937
Devan Dubnyk 0.9169 357 68 0.9300 0.9265 0.9180
Antti Raanta 0.9223 266 37 0.9286 0.9189 0.9194
Alex Stalock 0.9104 95 24 0.8947 0.9167 0.8865
Casey DeSmith 0.9241 184 24 0.9293 0.9167 0.9205
John Gibson 0.9239 460 82 0.9326 0.9146 0.9285
Martin Jones 0.9150 297 56 0.8990 0.9107 0.8893
Anders Nilsson 0.9068 181 25 0.9116 0.8400 0.9179
Anton Khudobin 0.9158 126 31 0.9286 0.8387 0.9417
Matt Murray 0.9142 281 37 0.8861 0.8378 0.8973
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 313 43 0.9010 0.8372 0.9016
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9079 173 24 0.8844 0.8333 0.8939
Philipp Grubauer 0.9213 168 30 0.8929 0.8333 0.8954
Pekka Rinne 0.9190 235 29 0.9489 0.8276 0.9485
Calvin Pickard 0.9111 137 28 0.8759 0.8214 0.8861
Ryan Miller 0.9155 156 28 0.9359 0.8214 0.9509
Brian Elliott 0.9123 280 54 0.8929 0.8148 0.9083
David Rittich 0.9100 178 27 0.9270 0.8148 0.9327
James Reimer 0.9142 183 29 0.8852 0.7931 0.9009
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9195 305 38 0.9016 0.7895 0.9133
Mike Smith 0.9123 288 42 0.8715 0.7857 0.8889
Cam Ward 0.9087 282 36 0.8865 0.7778 0.9017
Cam Talbot 0.9173 316 40 0.8987 0.7500 0.9139
Braden Holtby 0.9187 345 33 0.8986 0.7273 0.9090
Curtis McElhinney 0.9080 121 21 0.8843 0.7143 0.9047
Petr Mrazek 0.9095 184 22 0.8804 0.6364 0.9126
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill