Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Pekka Rinne 0.9191 265 225 0.9509 0.9644
Ryan Miller 0.9154 169 135 0.9290 0.9630
Roberto Luongo 0.9196 136 119 0.9559 0.9580
David Rittich 0.9126 199 164 0.9347 0.9512
Thomas Greiss 0.9136 275 223 0.9382 0.9462
Anton Khudobin 0.9159 190 146 0.9263 0.9452
Jaroslav Halak 0.9162 353 264 0.9320 0.9432
Frederik Andersen 0.9187 456 386 0.9342 0.9404
Chad Johnson 0.9104 137 115 0.9270 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Linus Ullmark 0.9169 154 22 0.9156 0.9545 0.9073
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 412 87 0.9272 0.9425 0.9121
Devan Dubnyk 0.9169 449 83 0.9265 0.9398 0.9117
Casey DeSmith 0.9282 257 30 0.9377 0.9333 0.9261
Corey Crawford 0.9186 302 59 0.9106 0.9322 0.8990
John Gibson 0.9236 550 110 0.9273 0.9273 0.9204
Antti Raanta 0.9223 266 37 0.9286 0.9189 0.9194
Martin Jones 0.9148 383 60 0.8982 0.9167 0.8872
Darcy Kuemper 0.9115 244 23 0.9057 0.9130 0.8962
Mike McKenna 0.8860 77 23 0.8571 0.9130 0.8268
Semyon Varlamov 0.9167 405 100 0.9259 0.9100 0.9202
Anders Nilsson 0.9068 181 25 0.9116 0.8400 0.9179
Matt Murray 0.9142 281 37 0.8861 0.8378 0.8973
Craig Anderson 0.9141 578 98 0.9048 0.8367 0.9099
David Rittich 0.9126 199 30 0.9347 0.8333 0.9375
Pheonix Copley 0.8922 169 36 0.9053 0.8333 0.9160
Philipp Grubauer 0.9213 168 30 0.8929 0.8333 0.8954
Ryan Miller 0.9154 169 30 0.9290 0.8333 0.9469
Brian Elliott 0.9128 359 61 0.9109 0.8197 0.9227
Antti Niemi 0.9123 203 32 0.8867 0.8125 0.8947
Calvin Pickard 0.9102 155 31 0.8645 0.8065 0.8892
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9197 366 45 0.9126 0.8000 0.9217
Mike Smith 0.9123 316 45 0.8766 0.8000 0.8911
James Reimer 0.9144 218 34 0.8991 0.7941 0.9137
Cam Ward 0.9087 322 39 0.8913 0.7436 0.9089
Cam Talbot 0.9170 363 45 0.8953 0.7333 0.9116
Curtis McElhinney 0.9080 121 21 0.8843 0.7143 0.9047
Braden Holtby 0.9187 402 44 0.9005 0.7045 0.9154
Petr Mrazek 0.9095 184 22 0.8804 0.6364 0.9126
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill