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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 15, 2018   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Pekka Rinne0.91912652250.95090.9644
Ryan Miller0.91541691350.92900.9630
Roberto Luongo0.91961361190.95590.9580
David Rittich0.91261991640.93470.9512
Thomas Greiss0.91362752230.93820.9462
Anton Khudobin0.91591901460.92630.9452
Jaroslav Halak0.91623532640.93200.9432
Frederik Andersen0.91874563860.93420.9404
Chad Johnson0.91041371150.92700.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Linus Ullmark0.9169154220.91560.95450.9073
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9181412870.92720.94250.9121
Devan Dubnyk0.9169449830.92650.93980.9117
Casey DeSmith0.9282257300.93770.93330.9261
Corey Crawford0.9186302590.91060.93220.8990
John Gibson0.92365501100.92730.92730.9204
Antti Raanta0.9223266370.92860.91890.9194
Martin Jones0.9148383600.89820.91670.8872
Darcy Kuemper0.9115244230.90570.91300.8962
Mike McKenna0.886077230.85710.91300.8268
Semyon Varlamov0.91674051000.92590.91000.9202
Anders Nilsson0.9068181250.91160.84000.9179
Matt Murray0.9142281370.88610.83780.8973
Craig Anderson0.9141578980.90480.83670.9099
David Rittich0.9126199300.93470.83330.9375
Pheonix Copley0.8922169360.90530.83330.9160
Philipp Grubauer0.9213168300.89290.83330.8954
Ryan Miller0.9154169300.92900.83330.9469
Brian Elliott0.9128359610.91090.81970.9227
Antti Niemi0.9123203320.88670.81250.8947
Calvin Pickard0.9102155310.86450.80650.8892
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9197366450.91260.80000.9217
Mike Smith0.9123316450.87660.80000.8911
James Reimer0.9144218340.89910.79410.9137
Cam Ward0.9087322390.89130.74360.9089
Cam Talbot0.9170363450.89530.73330.9116
Curtis McElhinney0.9080121210.88430.71430.9047
Braden Holtby0.9187402440.90050.70450.9154
Petr Mrazek0.9095184220.88040.63640.9126

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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