Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Ryan Miller 0.9154 211 175 0.9242 0.9600
Calvin Petersen 0.9216 153 119 0.9216 0.9580
Laurent Brossoit 0.9074 164 135 0.9512 0.9556
David Rittich 0.9135 287 235 0.9303 0.9532
Pekka Rinne 0.9192 376 318 0.9441 0.9528
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 386 286 0.9352 0.9441
Frederik Andersen 0.9190 583 505 0.9348 0.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Casey DeSmith 0.9229 331 40 0.9245 0.9500 0.9146
Darcy Kuemper 0.9121 338 35 0.9142 0.9429 0.9011
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 412 87 0.9272 0.9425 0.9121
Devan Dubnyk 0.9167 531 94 0.9209 0.9362 0.9088
Martin Jones 0.9141 440 66 0.8909 0.9242 0.8815
Laurent Brossoit 0.9074 164 26 0.9512 0.9231 0.9410
John Gibson 0.9235 613 113 0.9266 0.9204 0.9205
Antti Raanta 0.9223 266 37 0.9286 0.9189 0.9194
Corey Crawford 0.9188 401 74 0.9177 0.9189 0.9087
Mike McKenna 0.8862 87 24 0.8621 0.9167 0.8339
Semyon Varlamov 0.9167 441 105 0.9252 0.9143 0.9182
Linus Ullmark 0.9182 193 23 0.9223 0.9130 0.9184
Anders Nilsson 0.9068 181 25 0.9116 0.8400 0.9179
Louis Domingue 0.9058 303 66 0.8977 0.8333 0.9111
Philipp Grubauer 0.9209 230 42 0.8957 0.8333 0.9002
Craig Anderson 0.9138 703 119 0.8990 0.8319 0.9044
Pheonix Copley 0.8889 217 41 0.8986 0.8293 0.9080
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Anton Khudobin 0.9150 216 39 0.9074 0.8205 0.9158
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9198 422 50 0.9147 0.8200 0.9201
Antti Niemi 0.9123 203 32 0.8867 0.8125 0.8947
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9073 235 32 0.8851 0.8125 0.8962
Chad Johnson 0.9101 166 21 0.9157 0.8095 0.9190
David Rittich 0.9135 287 42 0.9303 0.8095 0.9391
Calvin Petersen 0.9216 153 30 0.9216 0.8000 0.9429
Mike Smith 0.9122 338 45 0.8757 0.8000 0.8893
James Reimer 0.9142 261 39 0.8927 0.7949 0.9062
Matt Murray 0.9131 317 46 0.8770 0.7826 0.8960
Ryan Miller 0.9154 211 32 0.9242 0.7813 0.9445
Curtis McElhinney 0.9086 187 27 0.9091 0.7778 0.9171
Calvin Pickard 0.9091 190 37 0.8579 0.7568 0.8901
Braden Holtby 0.9189 463 51 0.9093 0.7451 0.9196
Cam Ward 0.9087 322 39 0.8913 0.7436 0.9089
Cam Talbot 0.9166 394 47 0.8883 0.7234 0.9075
Petr Mrazek 0.9095 184 22 0.8804 0.6364 0.9126
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill