Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Cal Petersen0.92733302590.92730.9537
Ryan Miller0.91542942410.92180.9461
Pekka Rinne0.91905584700.93190.9447
Jaroslav Halak0.91635294050.93010.9432
David Rittich0.91143923170.92090.9432

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Darcy Kuemper0.9117364370.90930.94590.8964
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9181412870.92720.94250.9121
Casey DeSmith0.9214573690.92150.92750.9191
Devan Dubnyk0.91616631080.90950.92590.8989
Ben Bishop0.9187569650.92090.92310.9111
Martin Jones0.9144632810.90030.91360.8928
Linus Ullmark0.9152373450.91150.91110.9084
Pheonix Copley0.8939276440.90220.84090.9067
Ryan Miller0.9154294470.92180.82980.9334
Brian Elliott0.9128384640.91150.82810.9211
Mike Smith0.9123493630.88840.82540.8951
David Rittich0.9114392620.92090.82260.9311
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9189607720.89790.81940.9029
Jonathan Bernier0.9131370380.88380.81580.8907
Braden Holtby0.9190681910.91340.81320.9196
Cal Petersen0.9273330570.92730.80700.9394
Philipp Grubauer0.9204351620.90030.80650.9097
Curtis McElhinney0.9093323360.91950.80560.9207
James Reimer0.9138450600.89330.80000.9056
Aaron Dell0.9169292340.90070.79410.9062
Petr Mrazek0.9098266370.89470.78380.9127
Matt Murray0.9131317460.87700.78260.8960
Calvin Pickard0.9089227400.86340.77500.8882
Antti Niemi0.9120266470.87590.76600.8977
Cam Talbot0.9167487580.89530.75860.9091
Anders Nilsson0.9063260380.90380.73680.9247
Cam Ward0.9085435570.88510.73680.9045

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill