Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9273 330 259 0.9273 0.9537
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Pekka Rinne 0.9190 558 470 0.9319 0.9447
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 529 405 0.9301 0.9432
David Rittich 0.9114 392 317 0.9209 0.9432

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Darcy Kuemper 0.9117 364 37 0.9093 0.9459 0.8964
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 412 87 0.9272 0.9425 0.9121
Casey DeSmith 0.9214 573 69 0.9215 0.9275 0.9191
Devan Dubnyk 0.9161 663 108 0.9095 0.9259 0.8989
Ben Bishop 0.9187 569 65 0.9209 0.9231 0.9111
Martin Jones 0.9144 632 81 0.9003 0.9136 0.8928
Linus Ullmark 0.9152 373 45 0.9115 0.9111 0.9084
Pheonix Copley 0.8939 276 44 0.9022 0.8409 0.9067
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Mike Smith 0.9123 493 63 0.8884 0.8254 0.8951
David Rittich 0.9114 392 62 0.9209 0.8226 0.9311
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9189 607 72 0.8979 0.8194 0.9029
Jonathan Bernier 0.9131 370 38 0.8838 0.8158 0.8907
Braden Holtby 0.9190 681 91 0.9134 0.8132 0.9196
Cal Petersen 0.9273 330 57 0.9273 0.8070 0.9394
Philipp Grubauer 0.9204 351 62 0.9003 0.8065 0.9097
Curtis McElhinney 0.9093 323 36 0.9195 0.8056 0.9207
James Reimer 0.9138 450 60 0.8933 0.8000 0.9056
Aaron Dell 0.9169 292 34 0.9007 0.7941 0.9062
Petr Mrazek 0.9098 266 37 0.8947 0.7838 0.9127
Matt Murray 0.9131 317 46 0.8770 0.7826 0.8960
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Antti Niemi 0.9120 266 47 0.8759 0.7660 0.8977
Cam Talbot 0.9167 487 58 0.8953 0.7586 0.9091
Anders Nilsson 0.9063 260 38 0.9038 0.7368 0.9247
Cam Ward 0.9085 435 57 0.8851 0.7368 0.9045
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill