Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9273 330 259 0.9273 0.9537
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Pekka Rinne 0.9189 627 522 0.9266 0.9444
David Rittich 0.9144 483 398 0.9255 0.9422
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 578 446 0.9291 0.9417

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Darcy Kuemper 0.9116 429 41 0.9091 0.9512 0.8964
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9186 541 110 0.9298 0.9455 0.9143
Devan Dubnyk 0.9162 744 120 0.9113 0.9333 0.9011
Casey DeSmith 0.9222 659 84 0.9226 0.9286 0.9191
Roberto Luongo 0.9193 426 41 0.9061 0.9268 0.9031
Linus Ullmark 0.9162 410 49 0.9146 0.9184 0.9103
Ben Bishop 0.9188 606 73 0.9224 0.9178 0.9133
Mike McKenna 0.8924 214 36 0.9019 0.9167 0.8888
Martin Jones 0.9143 684 81 0.9006 0.9136 0.8934
Frederik Andersen 0.9184 911 105 0.9232 0.8381 0.9247
Pekka Rinne 0.9189 627 80 0.9266 0.8375 0.9321
David Rittich 0.9144 483 66 0.9255 0.8333 0.9303
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Mike Smith 0.9123 493 63 0.8884 0.8254 0.8951
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9191 687 73 0.9054 0.8219 0.9086
Pheonix Copley 0.8941 305 50 0.9016 0.8200 0.9099
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Aaron Dell 0.9177 308 37 0.9058 0.8108 0.9097
Matt Murray 0.9138 390 58 0.8897 0.8103 0.9039
Malcolm Subban 0.8994 159 21 0.8805 0.8095 0.8857
Cal Petersen 0.9273 330 57 0.9273 0.8070 0.9394
Philipp Grubauer 0.9204 415 67 0.9036 0.8060 0.9134
Curtis McElhinney 0.9093 323 36 0.9195 0.8056 0.9207
Petr Mrazek 0.9099 328 41 0.8994 0.8049 0.9109
James Reimer 0.9135 476 60 0.8887 0.8000 0.8998
Braden Holtby 0.9188 738 101 0.9106 0.7921 0.9208
Anders Nilsson 0.9059 330 47 0.9000 0.7872 0.9126
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Antti Niemi 0.9120 266 47 0.8759 0.7660 0.8977
Cam Talbot 0.9164 556 67 0.8939 0.7612 0.9074
Cam Ward 0.9085 501 70 0.8882 0.7571 0.9058
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill