Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Ryan Miller0.91542942410.92180.9461
Collin Delia0.92862452030.93880.9458
Laurent Brossoit0.91083422890.93860.9412
Mackenzie Blackwood0.94742091670.94740.9401

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9474209320.94740.96880.9286
Darcy Kuemper0.9123616640.91400.93750.9030
Devan Dubnyk0.91649771550.91500.92900.9056
Linus Ullmark0.9202529650.92440.92310.9180
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.91817701370.92340.91970.9133
Laurent Brossoit0.9108342470.93860.91490.9295
Mike McKenna0.8904316470.89240.91490.8822
Casey DeSmith0.9231763920.92400.91300.9213
Jonathan Quick0.9159550740.90180.83780.9092
Frederik Andersen0.91849651110.92330.83780.9248
Alex Stalock0.9097254490.89760.83670.9039
David Rittich0.9138719960.92070.83330.9241
Ryan Miller0.9154294470.92180.82980.9334
Brian Elliott0.9128384640.91150.82810.9211
Joonas Korpisalo0.9068352390.88920.82050.8956
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
James Reimer0.9136606760.89600.81580.9042
Cam Talbot0.9162681860.89570.81400.9046
Philipp Grubauer0.9181561910.89480.81320.9050
Braden Holtby0.91879051200.91050.80830.9175
Mike Smith0.9121578710.88580.80280.8936
Aaron Dell0.9137384500.89060.80000.8966
Michal Neuvirth0.9104184300.85870.80000.8686
Anders Nilsson0.9053425650.89650.80000.9078
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369
Antti Niemi0.9119403690.88590.78260.9023
Petr Mrazek0.9097481640.90020.78130.9139
Calvin Pickard0.9089227400.86340.77500.8882
Cam Ward0.9084624850.88940.76470.9047
Michael Hutchinson0.9076181240.87850.75000.8971

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill