Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Collin Delia 0.9286 245 203 0.9388 0.9458
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 289 0.9386 0.9412
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9474 209 167 0.9474 0.9401

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9474 209 32 0.9474 0.9688 0.9286
Darcy Kuemper 0.9123 616 64 0.9140 0.9375 0.9030
Devan Dubnyk 0.9164 977 155 0.9150 0.9290 0.9056
Linus Ullmark 0.9202 529 65 0.9244 0.9231 0.9180
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 770 137 0.9234 0.9197 0.9133
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 47 0.9386 0.9149 0.9295
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
Casey DeSmith 0.9231 763 92 0.9240 0.9130 0.9213
Jonathan Quick 0.9159 550 74 0.9018 0.8378 0.9092
Frederik Andersen 0.9184 965 111 0.9233 0.8378 0.9248
Alex Stalock 0.9097 254 49 0.8976 0.8367 0.9039
David Rittich 0.9138 719 96 0.9207 0.8333 0.9241
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9068 352 39 0.8892 0.8205 0.8956
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
James Reimer 0.9136 606 76 0.8960 0.8158 0.9042
Cam Talbot 0.9162 681 86 0.8957 0.8140 0.9046
Philipp Grubauer 0.9181 561 91 0.8948 0.8132 0.9050
Braden Holtby 0.9187 905 120 0.9105 0.8083 0.9175
Mike Smith 0.9121 578 71 0.8858 0.8028 0.8936
Aaron Dell 0.9137 384 50 0.8906 0.8000 0.8966
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Anders Nilsson 0.9053 425 65 0.8965 0.8000 0.9078
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Antti Niemi 0.9119 403 69 0.8859 0.7826 0.9023
Petr Mrazek 0.9097 481 64 0.9002 0.7813 0.9139
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Cam Ward 0.9084 624 85 0.8894 0.7647 0.9047
Michael Hutchinson 0.9076 181 24 0.8785 0.7500 0.8971
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill