Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 17, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Jordan Binnington	0.9308	126	109	0.9365	0.9541
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Laurent Brossoit	0.9144	421	351	0.9430	0.9487
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	241	0.9218	0.9461

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9345	275	38	0.9345	0.9474	0.9199
Darcy Kuemper	0.9122	706	78	0.9136	0.9359	0.9028
Devan Dubnyk	0.9160	1062	173	0.9105	0.9306	0.9006
Laurent Brossoit	0.9144	421	63	0.9430	0.9206	0.9355
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9185	859	151	0.9255	0.9205	0.9155
Martin Jones	0.9141	959	119	0.9030	0.9160	0.8951
Casey DeSmith	0.9213	787	94	0.9212	0.9149	0.9192
Mike McKenna	0.8904	316	47	0.8924	0.9149	0.8822
Collin Delia	0.9244	294	45	0.9320	0.9111	0.9245
Pheonix Copley	0.9007	519	75	0.9056	0.8400	0.9105
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9188	1079	168	0.9082	0.8393	0.9124
Frederik Andersen	0.9183	1001	112	0.9221	0.8393	0.9240
David Rittich	0.9117	769	102	0.9168	0.8333	0.9201
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	47	0.9218	0.8298	0.9334
Jonathan Quick	0.9161	658	82	0.9073	0.8293	0.9147
Brian Elliott	0.9128	384	64	0.9115	0.8281	0.9211
Aaron Dell	0.9133	423	56	0.8913	0.8214	0.8971
Braden Holtby	0.9188	957	132	0.9122	0.8182	0.9184
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Curtis McElhinney	0.9091	523	60	0.9140	0.8167	0.9164
Pekka Rinne	0.9184	907	114	0.9151	0.8158	0.9229
Philipp Grubauer	0.9181	561	91	0.8948	0.8132	0.9050
Michael Hutchinson	0.9077	239	32	0.8870	0.8125	0.8970
James Reimer	0.9134	657	79	0.8935	0.8101	0.9016
Anders Nilsson	0.9062	522	73	0.9042	0.8082	0.9122
Mike Smith	0.9121	601	77	0.8885	0.8052	0.8965
Cam Talbot	0.9161	740	92	0.8959	0.8043	0.9055
Michal Neuvirth	0.9104	184	30	0.8587	0.8000	0.8686
Antti Niemi	0.9122	456	73	0.8969	0.7945	0.9099
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369
Petr Mrazek	0.9096	533	73	0.9006	0.7808	0.9162
Calvin Pickard	0.9089	227	40	0.8634	0.7750	0.8882
Cam Ward	0.9082	649	88	0.8844	0.7500	0.9015

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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