Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jordan Binnington 0.9308 126 109 0.9365 0.9541
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Laurent Brossoit 0.9144 421 351 0.9430 0.9487
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9345 275 38 0.9345 0.9474 0.9199
Darcy Kuemper 0.9122 706 78 0.9136 0.9359 0.9028
Devan Dubnyk 0.9160 1062 173 0.9105 0.9306 0.9006
Laurent Brossoit 0.9144 421 63 0.9430 0.9206 0.9355
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9185 859 151 0.9255 0.9205 0.9155
Martin Jones 0.9141 959 119 0.9030 0.9160 0.8951
Casey DeSmith 0.9213 787 94 0.9212 0.9149 0.9192
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
Collin Delia 0.9244 294 45 0.9320 0.9111 0.9245
Pheonix Copley 0.9007 519 75 0.9056 0.8400 0.9105
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9188 1079 168 0.9082 0.8393 0.9124
Frederik Andersen 0.9183 1001 112 0.9221 0.8393 0.9240
David Rittich 0.9117 769 102 0.9168 0.8333 0.9201
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Jonathan Quick 0.9161 658 82 0.9073 0.8293 0.9147
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Aaron Dell 0.9133 423 56 0.8913 0.8214 0.8971
Braden Holtby 0.9188 957 132 0.9122 0.8182 0.9184
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Curtis McElhinney 0.9091 523 60 0.9140 0.8167 0.9164
Pekka Rinne 0.9184 907 114 0.9151 0.8158 0.9229
Philipp Grubauer 0.9181 561 91 0.8948 0.8132 0.9050
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
James Reimer 0.9134 657 79 0.8935 0.8101 0.9016
Anders Nilsson 0.9062 522 73 0.9042 0.8082 0.9122
Mike Smith 0.9121 601 77 0.8885 0.8052 0.8965
Cam Talbot 0.9161 740 92 0.8959 0.8043 0.9055
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Antti Niemi 0.9122 456 73 0.8969 0.7945 0.9099
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Petr Mrazek 0.9096 533 73 0.9006 0.7808 0.9162
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Cam Ward 0.9082 649 88 0.8844 0.7500 0.9015
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill