Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 40 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly | 15 | 42 | 154 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 94 |
| Michael Frolik | 13 | 8 | 86 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 15.1 | 8.1 | 86 |
| Tom Wilson | 15 | 13 | 88 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 17.0 | 9.1 | 86 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 7 | 3 | 47 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 14.9 | 8.1 | 84 |
| Ron Hainsey | 4 | 12 | 52 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 81 |
| Casey Cizikas | 15 | 10 | 79 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 19.0 | 10.8 | 75 |
| Matt Niskanen | 8 | 14 | 99 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 75 |
| Brian Boyle | 15 | 6 | 96 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 15.6 | 9.3 | 69 |
| Elias Lindholm | 25 | 43 | 145 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 17.2 | 10.3 | 68 |
| Brad Richardson | 11 | 5 | 79 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 13.9 | 8.3 | 67 |
| Jeff Skinner | 36 | 18 | 191 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 18.8 | 11.4 | 65 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 26 | 8 | 129 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 20.2 | 12.2 | 65 |
| Tomas Hertl | 26 | 27 | 124 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 21.0 | 12.7 | 65 |
| Joe Pavelski | 32 | 23 | 156 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 20.5 | 12.4 | 65 |
| Matt Duchene | 27 | 31 | 126 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 21.4 | 13.1 | 64 |
| Alex Chiasson | 17 | 10 | 82 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 20.7 | 12.8 | 62 |
| David Perron | 17 | 18 | 85 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 20.0 | 12.4 | 61 |
| Matt Martin | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 59 |
| Damon Severson | 8 | 21 | 105 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 57 |
| Valtteri Filppula | 12 | 11 | 57 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 21.1 | 13.6 | 55 |
| Jakob Silfverberg | 16 | 8 | 113 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 54 |
| TJ Brodie | 7 | 22 | 75 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 50 |
| David Backes | 5 | 9 | 86 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 11.7 | -50 |
| Niklas Kronwall | 2 | 14 | 63 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 6.5 | -51 |
| William Nylander | 3 | 9 | 62 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 10.3 | -53 |
| Andrew Cogliano | 4 | 10 | 83 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 10.4 | -54 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 2 | 21 | 55 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.3 | -56 |
| Drew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 43 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 10.5 | -56 |
| Colin Miller | 2 | 21 | 92 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | -57 |
| Pat Maroon | 4 | 12 | 83 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 11.1 | -57 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 6 | 21 | 124 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 12.5 | -61 |
| Carl Hagelin | 2 | 6 | 64 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 8.0 | -61 |
| Ian Cole | 1 | 9 | 63 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4.3 | -63 |
| Noel Acciari | 2 | 4 | 68 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 8.0 | -63 |
| James Neal | 5 | 10 | 122 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 11.6 | -65 |
| Jack Johnson | 1 | 11 | 56 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 5.1 | -65 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 1 | 3 | 54 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 5.5 | -66 |
| Ryan Murray | 1 | 28 | 71 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.1 | -66 |
| Olli Maatta | 1 | 12 | 65 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4.7 | -67 |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 2 | 16 | 102 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 6.1 | -68 |
| Deryk Engelland | 1 | 6 | 72 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.4 | -69 |
| Erik Karlsson | 3 | 41 | 159 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 6.4 | -71 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1 | 11 | 71 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4.9 | -71 |
| Kevin Connauton | 1 | 6 | 68 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 6.0 | -75 |
| Nick Leddy | 1 | 18 | 77 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.1 | -79 |
| Riley Nash | 1 | 7 | 59 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 9.1 | -82 |
| Tobias Rieder | 0 | 10 | 63 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2018-2019 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
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