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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 21, 2019   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Jordan Binnington0.93534133540.93700.9520
Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Ryan Miller0.91553502870.92860.9477
Laurent Brossoit0.91195254330.93140.9400

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.919812081860.92960.91940.9196
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9263353490.92630.91840.9161
Mike McKenna0.8904316470.89240.91490.8822
Pheonix Copley0.8999634870.90380.83910.9075
Cory Schneider0.9189343310.88340.83870.8889
David Rittich0.90879231230.91120.83740.9148
Braden Holtby0.918013001810.90690.83430.9109
Joonas Korpisalo0.9069527540.89560.83330.8994
Anders Nilsson0.90707911020.90900.83330.9142
Jimmy Howard0.914312621900.91050.83160.9163
Jonathan Quick0.91548971160.89860.82760.9072
Brian Elliott0.9129407690.91400.82610.9242
Alex Stalock0.9081362690.88950.82610.8958
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
Philipp Grubauer0.91666361070.88990.81310.9006
Michael Hutchinson0.9077239320.88700.81250.8970
Calvin Pickard0.9086329570.87540.80700.8908
Michal Neuvirth0.9104184300.85870.80000.8686
Aaron Dell0.9132455600.89230.80000.9006
Cam Ward0.90839361340.89420.79850.9042
Cam Talbot0.91548881190.89300.79830.9041
Petr Mrazek0.9094743990.90170.79800.9139
Antti Niemi0.9118515840.88930.79760.9021
Mike Smith0.91208181080.89240.79630.9008
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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