Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9155 436 357 0.9266 0.9440
Jordan Binnington 0.9276 535 460 0.9290 0.9413
Kevin Boyle 0.9281 139 116 0.9281 0.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9204 1376 216 0.9310 0.9213 0.9207
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
David Rittich 0.9089 1036 138 0.9112 0.8406 0.9150
Anders Nilsson 0.9060 878 111 0.9043 0.8378 0.9087
James Reimer 0.9136 920 111 0.9022 0.8378 0.9056
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9071 532 55 0.8966 0.8364 0.8998
Alex Stalock 0.9089 405 73 0.8963 0.8356 0.9007
Jimmy Howard 0.9141 1328 194 0.9081 0.8351 0.9132
Braden Holtby 0.9180 1477 194 0.9086 0.8351 0.9115
Malcolm Subban 0.9051 333 36 0.9069 0.8333 0.9071
Pheonix Copley 0.8971 665 88 0.9008 0.8295 0.9052
Brian Elliott 0.9130 606 82 0.9158 0.8293 0.9209
Jonathan Quick 0.9148 1058 140 0.8913 0.8286 0.8997
Philipp Grubauer 0.9175 697 119 0.8967 0.8235 0.9056
Mike Smith 0.9120 894 121 0.8949 0.8182 0.9006
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
Calvin Pickard 0.9086 329 57 0.8754 0.8070 0.8908
Aaron Dell 0.9128 481 61 0.8919 0.8033 0.8994
Cam Talbot 0.9154 937 122 0.8943 0.8033 0.9039
Petr Mrazek 0.9096 830 110 0.9036 0.8000 0.9149
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Antti Niemi 0.9118 515 84 0.8893 0.7976 0.9021
Cam Ward 0.9082 998 137 0.8928 0.7956 0.9027
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill