Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Ryan Miller0.91554363570.92660.9440
Jordan Binnington0.92765354600.92900.9413
Kevin Boyle0.92811391160.92810.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.920413762160.93100.92130.9207
Mike McKenna0.8904316470.89240.91490.8822
David Rittich0.908910361380.91120.84060.9150
Anders Nilsson0.90608781110.90430.83780.9087
James Reimer0.91369201110.90220.83780.9056
Joonas Korpisalo0.9071532550.89660.83640.8998
Alex Stalock0.9089405730.89630.83560.9007
Jimmy Howard0.914113281940.90810.83510.9132
Braden Holtby0.918014771940.90860.83510.9115
Malcolm Subban0.9051333360.90690.83330.9071
Pheonix Copley0.8971665880.90080.82950.9052
Brian Elliott0.9130606820.91580.82930.9209
Jonathan Quick0.914810581400.89130.82860.8997
Philipp Grubauer0.91756971190.89670.82350.9056
Mike Smith0.91208941210.89490.81820.9006
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
Michael Hutchinson0.9077239320.88700.81250.8970
Calvin Pickard0.9086329570.87540.80700.8908
Aaron Dell0.9128481610.89190.80330.8994
Cam Talbot0.91549371220.89430.80330.9039
Petr Mrazek0.90968301100.90360.80000.9149
Michal Neuvirth0.9104184300.85870.80000.8686
Antti Niemi0.9118515840.88930.79760.9021
Cam Ward0.90829981370.89280.79560.9027
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill