Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Pekka Rinne 0.9185 177 154 0.9209 0.9545
Tuukka Rask 0.9215 160 127 0.9438 0.9528
Carter Hutton 0.9140 176 143 0.9432 0.9510
Darcy Kuemper 0.9171 177 133 0.9435 0.9474
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9160 267 225 0.9288 0.9467
Mikko Koskinen 0.9058 136 111 0.9338 0.9459
John Gibson 0.9216 233 192 0.9270 0.9427

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9134 319 73 0.9373 0.9726 0.9166
Mike Smith 0.9122 173 41 0.9249 0.9512 0.9094
Carter Hutton 0.9140 176 29 0.9432 0.9310 0.9374
Jordan Binnington 0.9231 216 28 0.9120 0.9286 0.9051
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9155 104 28 0.9231 0.9286 0.9117
Martin Jones 0.9111 217 41 0.8940 0.9268 0.8904
Jacob Markstrom 0.9098 195 41 0.9333 0.9268 0.9236
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9184 197 24 0.8782 0.9167 0.8700
Darcy Kuemper 0.9171 177 35 0.9435 0.9143 0.9344
Mikko Koskinen 0.9058 136 23 0.9338 0.9130 0.9333
Anders Nilsson 0.9080 169 34 0.9349 0.9118 0.9273
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9129 123 30 0.8862 0.8333 0.8975
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9184 149 29 0.9060 0.8276 0.9209
Jonathan Bernier 0.9131 163 22 0.9018 0.8182 0.9109
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9160 267 33 0.9288 0.8182 0.9339
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9066 199 21 0.9045 0.8095 0.9165
Keith Kinkaid 0.9060 72 21 0.8750 0.8095 0.8982
Devan Dubnyk 0.9156 192 26 0.8802 0.8077 0.8877
Linus Ullmark 0.9099 149 25 0.9128 0.8000 0.9223
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9190 227 29 0.9075 0.7586 0.9229
Pekka Rinne 0.9185 177 21 0.9209 0.7143 0.9401
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill