Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Thatcher Demko 0.9179 145 106 0.9379 0.9434
Ryan Miller 0.9153 136 106 0.9265 0.9434
Darcy Kuemper 0.9175 285 226 0.9404 0.9425
Pekka Rinne 0.9186 274 242 0.9234 0.9421
Thomas Greiss 0.9155 237 205 0.9367 0.9415
Semyon Varlamov 0.9158 198 167 0.9293 0.9401
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9164 401 332 0.9302 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9133 419 86 0.9236 0.9651 0.9056
Robin Lehner 0.9184 293 46 0.9352 0.9565 0.9214
Aaron Dell 0.9071 156 22 0.8782 0.9545 0.8704
Thatcher Demko 0.9179 145 30 0.9379 0.9333 0.9312
Matt Murray 0.9174 325 29 0.9169 0.9310 0.9069
Thomas Greiss 0.9155 237 28 0.9367 0.9286 0.9297
Martin Jones 0.9106 332 70 0.8886 0.9286 0.8799
Jacob Markstrom 0.9095 304 52 0.9178 0.9231 0.9135
Mike Smith 0.9123 285 64 0.9263 0.9219 0.9210
Carter Hutton 0.9137 265 38 0.9283 0.9211 0.9223
Darcy Kuemper 0.9175 285 47 0.9404 0.9149 0.9305
Alex Stalock 0.9094 205 35 0.9171 0.9143 0.9120
David Rittich 0.9104 461 80 0.9154 0.9125 0.9128
Ben Bishop 0.9208 346 57 0.9277 0.9123 0.9208
James Reimer 0.9133 172 31 0.9070 0.8387 0.9137
Petr Mrazek 0.9111 264 37 0.9091 0.8378 0.9150
Jimmy Howard 0.9134 310 53 0.8871 0.8302 0.8972
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9051 333 41 0.8919 0.8293 0.9049
Curtis McElhinney 0.9089 159 29 0.8994 0.8276 0.9062
Keith Kinkaid 0.9058 107 23 0.8785 0.8261 0.8877
Elvis Merzlikins 0.8824 119 22 0.8824 0.8182 0.8906
Carey Price 0.9181 366 52 0.9098 0.8077 0.9156
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9188 293 41 0.9044 0.8049 0.9148
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 277 63 0.8592 0.7937 0.8742
Pekka Rinne 0.9186 274 29 0.9234 0.7931 0.9303
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 247 42 0.8866 0.7857 0.9050
Corey Crawford 0.9174 204 23 0.8922 0.6957 0.9133
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill