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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 7, 2019   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Thatcher Demko0.91791451060.93790.9434
Ryan Miller0.91531361060.92650.9434
Darcy Kuemper0.91752852260.94040.9425
Pekka Rinne0.91862742420.92340.9421
Thomas Greiss0.91552372050.93670.9415
Semyon Varlamov0.91581981670.92930.9401
Connor Hellebuyck0.91644013320.93020.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Marc-Andre Fleury0.9133419860.92360.96510.9056
Robin Lehner0.9184293460.93520.95650.9214
Aaron Dell0.9071156220.87820.95450.8704
Thatcher Demko0.9179145300.93790.93330.9312
Matt Murray0.9174325290.91690.93100.9069
Thomas Greiss0.9155237280.93670.92860.9297
Martin Jones0.9106332700.88860.92860.8799
Jacob Markstrom0.9095304520.91780.92310.9135
Mike Smith0.9123285640.92630.92190.9210
Carter Hutton0.9137265380.92830.92110.9223
Darcy Kuemper0.9175285470.94040.91490.9305
Alex Stalock0.9094205350.91710.91430.9120
David Rittich0.9104461800.91540.91250.9128
Ben Bishop0.9208346570.92770.91230.9208
James Reimer0.9133172310.90700.83870.9137
Petr Mrazek0.9111264370.90910.83780.9150
Jimmy Howard0.9134310530.88710.83020.8972
Joonas Korpisalo0.9051333410.89190.82930.9049
Curtis McElhinney0.9089159290.89940.82760.9062
Keith Kinkaid0.9058107230.87850.82610.8877
Elvis Merzlikins0.8824119220.88240.81820.8906
Carey Price0.9181366520.90980.80770.9156
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9188293410.90440.80490.9148
Jonathan Quick0.9132277630.85920.79370.8742
Pekka Rinne0.9186274290.92340.79310.9303
Jonathan Bernier0.9126247420.88660.78570.9050
Corey Crawford0.9174204230.89220.69570.9133


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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