Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Thomas Greiss 0.9158 275 235 0.9418 0.9489
Thatcher Demko 0.9176 216 165 0.9306 0.9394

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9131 478 99 0.9142 0.9596 0.8970
Aaron Dell 0.9071 156 22 0.8782 0.9545 0.8704
Martin Jones 0.9103 407 86 0.8870 0.9419 0.8744
Matt Murray 0.9172 406 34 0.9138 0.9412 0.9057
Robin Lehner 0.9185 350 56 0.9343 0.9286 0.9249
Mike Smith 0.9121 310 66 0.9129 0.9242 0.9063
Brian Elliott 0.9124 243 26 0.9095 0.9231 0.9001
Thomas Greiss 0.9158 275 36 0.9418 0.9167 0.9357
Alex Stalock 0.9084 217 35 0.9032 0.9143 0.8980
Cam Talbot 0.9148 150 23 0.9067 0.9130 0.9051
Elvis Merzlikins 0.8940 151 25 0.8940 0.8400 0.8979
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9103 323 55 0.8947 0.8364 0.9022
Petr Mrazek 0.9110 311 42 0.9068 0.8333 0.9125
Jimmy Howard 0.9134 310 53 0.8871 0.8302 0.8972
Michael Hutchinson 0.9060 190 29 0.8789 0.8276 0.8849
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 321 58 0.8910 0.8276 0.9018
Keith Kinkaid 0.9058 107 23 0.8785 0.8261 0.8877
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9187 315 42 0.9048 0.8095 0.9132
Pavel Francouz 0.9195 201 21 0.9154 0.8095 0.9171
Jonathan Quick 0.9133 342 73 0.8743 0.7945 0.8891
Carter Hart 0.9140 280 24 0.9036 0.7917 0.9053
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Corey Crawford 0.9176 315 36 0.9079 0.7500 0.9209
Pekka Rinne 0.9183 321 39 0.9065 0.7436 0.9219
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill