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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 14, 2019   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Thomas Greiss0.91582752350.94180.9489
Thatcher Demko0.91762161650.93060.9394

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9131478990.91420.95960.8970
Aaron Dell0.9071156220.87820.95450.8704
Martin Jones0.9103407860.88700.94190.8744
Matt Murray0.9172406340.91380.94120.9057
Robin Lehner0.9185350560.93430.92860.9249
Mike Smith0.9121310660.91290.92420.9063
Brian Elliott0.9124243260.90950.92310.9001
Thomas Greiss0.9158275360.94180.91670.9357
Alex Stalock0.9084217350.90320.91430.8980
Cam Talbot0.9148150230.90670.91300.9051
Elvis Merzlikins0.8940151250.89400.84000.8979
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9103323550.89470.83640.9022
Petr Mrazek0.9110311420.90680.83330.9125
Jimmy Howard0.9134310530.88710.83020.8972
Michael Hutchinson0.9060190290.87890.82760.8849
Jonathan Bernier0.9126321580.89100.82760.9018
Keith Kinkaid0.9058107230.87850.82610.8877
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9187315420.90480.80950.9132
Pavel Francouz0.9195201210.91540.80950.9171
Jonathan Quick0.9133342730.87430.79450.8891
Carter Hart0.9140280240.90360.79170.9053
Cory Schneider0.9179176240.85230.75000.8678
Corey Crawford0.9176315360.90790.75000.9209
Pekka Rinne0.9183321390.90650.74360.9219

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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