Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Tristan Jarry	0.9109	146	124	0.9384	0.9516
Thomas Greiss	0.9158	306	259	0.9379	0.9459
Darcy Kuemper	0.9178	414	337	0.9372	0.9407

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Aaron Dell	0.9071	156	22	0.8782	0.9545	0.8704
Matt Murray	0.9168	469	44	0.9104	0.9545	0.9009
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9133	545	100	0.9211	0.9500	0.9072
Robin Lehner	0.9186	423	61	0.9338	0.9344	0.9232
Martin Jones	0.9099	496	101	0.8851	0.9307	0.8743
Mike Smith	0.9121	343	70	0.9155	0.9286	0.9077
Alex Stalock	0.9090	248	39	0.9113	0.9231	0.9039
Ben Bishop	0.9209	419	76	0.9284	0.9211	0.9201
Jaroslav Halak	0.9164	277	25	0.9242	0.9200	0.9127
Mikko Koskinen	0.9070	363	49	0.9229	0.9184	0.9164
Ilya Samsonov	0.9121	239	24	0.9121	0.9167	0.9093
David Rittich	0.9100	561	101	0.9127	0.9109	0.9093
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9183	411	69	0.9100	0.8406	0.9150
Elvis Merzlikins	0.8940	151	25	0.8940	0.8400	0.8979
Malcolm Subban	0.9016	134	24	0.8881	0.8333	0.8989
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9103	424	64	0.8986	0.8281	0.9049
Michael Hutchinson	0.9060	190	29	0.8789	0.8276	0.8849
Jimmy Howard	0.9133	329	57	0.8845	0.8246	0.8957
Jack Campbell	0.9184	220	28	0.8864	0.8214	0.8906
Laurent Brossoit	0.9061	171	22	0.8713	0.8182	0.8795
Pavel Francouz	0.9195	201	21	0.9154	0.8095	0.9171
Jonathan Quick	0.9132	394	76	0.8782	0.8026	0.8895
Corey Crawford	0.9177	349	43	0.9140	0.7907	0.9229
Keith Kinkaid	0.9058	150	27	0.8867	0.7778	0.9088
Carter Hart	0.9118	317	27	0.8959	0.7778	0.8997
Cory Schneider	0.9179	176	24	0.8523	0.7500	0.8678
Pekka Rinne	0.9181	335	39	0.8985	0.7436	0.9138