Skip to Content

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 21, 2019   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Tristan Jarry0.91091461240.93840.9516
Thomas Greiss0.91583062590.93790.9459
Darcy Kuemper0.91784143370.93720.9407

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Aaron Dell0.9071156220.87820.95450.8704
Matt Murray0.9168469440.91040.95450.9009
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91335451000.92110.95000.9072
Robin Lehner0.9186423610.93380.93440.9232
Martin Jones0.90994961010.88510.93070.8743
Mike Smith0.9121343700.91550.92860.9077
Alex Stalock0.9090248390.91130.92310.9039
Ben Bishop0.9209419760.92840.92110.9201
Jaroslav Halak0.9164277250.92420.92000.9127
Mikko Koskinen0.9070363490.92290.91840.9164
Ilya Samsonov0.9121239240.91210.91670.9093
David Rittich0.91005611010.91270.91090.9093
Henrik Lundqvist0.9183411690.91000.84060.9150
Elvis Merzlikins0.8940151250.89400.84000.8979
Malcolm Subban0.9016134240.88810.83330.8989
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9103424640.89860.82810.9049
Michael Hutchinson0.9060190290.87890.82760.8849
Jimmy Howard0.9133329570.88450.82460.8957
Jack Campbell0.9184220280.88640.82140.8906
Laurent Brossoit0.9061171220.87130.81820.8795
Pavel Francouz0.9195201210.91540.80950.9171
Jonathan Quick0.9132394760.87820.80260.8895
Corey Crawford0.9177349430.91400.79070.9229
Keith Kinkaid0.9058150270.88670.77780.9088
Carter Hart0.9118317270.89590.77780.8997
Cory Schneider0.9179176240.85230.75000.8678
Pekka Rinne0.9181335390.89850.74360.9138


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

Leave a comment

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Login | Register