Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9109 146 124 0.9384 0.9516
Thomas Greiss 0.9158 306 259 0.9379 0.9459
Darcy Kuemper 0.9178 414 337 0.9372 0.9407

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9071 156 22 0.8782 0.9545 0.8704
Matt Murray 0.9168 469 44 0.9104 0.9545 0.9009
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9133 545 100 0.9211 0.9500 0.9072
Robin Lehner 0.9186 423 61 0.9338 0.9344 0.9232
Martin Jones 0.9099 496 101 0.8851 0.9307 0.8743
Mike Smith 0.9121 343 70 0.9155 0.9286 0.9077
Alex Stalock 0.9090 248 39 0.9113 0.9231 0.9039
Ben Bishop 0.9209 419 76 0.9284 0.9211 0.9201
Jaroslav Halak 0.9164 277 25 0.9242 0.9200 0.9127
Mikko Koskinen 0.9070 363 49 0.9229 0.9184 0.9164
Ilya Samsonov 0.9121 239 24 0.9121 0.9167 0.9093
David Rittich 0.9100 561 101 0.9127 0.9109 0.9093
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9183 411 69 0.9100 0.8406 0.9150
Elvis Merzlikins 0.8940 151 25 0.8940 0.8400 0.8979
Malcolm Subban 0.9016 134 24 0.8881 0.8333 0.8989
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9103 424 64 0.8986 0.8281 0.9049
Michael Hutchinson 0.9060 190 29 0.8789 0.8276 0.8849
Jimmy Howard 0.9133 329 57 0.8845 0.8246 0.8957
Jack Campbell 0.9184 220 28 0.8864 0.8214 0.8906
Laurent Brossoit 0.9061 171 22 0.8713 0.8182 0.8795
Pavel Francouz 0.9195 201 21 0.9154 0.8095 0.9171
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 394 76 0.8782 0.8026 0.8895
Corey Crawford 0.9177 349 43 0.9140 0.7907 0.9229
Keith Kinkaid 0.9058 150 27 0.8867 0.7778 0.9088
Carter Hart 0.9118 317 27 0.8959 0.7778 0.8997
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Pekka Rinne 0.9181 335 39 0.8985 0.7436 0.9138
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill