Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9129 225 185 0.9378 0.9568
Anton Khudobin 0.9180 318 249 0.9308 0.9438
Tuukka Rask 0.9216 491 382 0.9308 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9132 605 111 0.9190 0.9459 0.9060
Martin Jones 0.9101 560 124 0.8911 0.9435 0.8764
Robin Lehner 0.9189 464 70 0.9375 0.9429 0.9253
Aaron Dell 0.9075 219 31 0.8904 0.9355 0.8833
Mike Smith 0.9120 382 71 0.9110 0.9296 0.9032
Ben Bishop 0.9208 473 81 0.9260 0.9259 0.9166
Matt Murray 0.9159 507 52 0.9014 0.9231 0.8950
Jaroslav Halak 0.9166 314 26 0.9299 0.9231 0.9182
Ilya Samsonov 0.9121 239 24 0.9121 0.9167 0.9093
Mikko Koskinen 0.9070 461 69 0.9197 0.9130 0.9141
Thomas Greiss 0.9155 355 46 0.9296 0.9130 0.9241
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9097 460 66 0.8978 0.8333 0.9029
Ryan Miller 0.9151 199 47 0.8995 0.8298 0.9126
Linus Ullmark 0.9104 407 64 0.9140 0.8281 0.9177
Michael Hutchinson 0.9060 190 29 0.8789 0.8276 0.8849
Tristan Jarry 0.9129 225 34 0.9378 0.8235 0.9419
Jack Campbell 0.9184 220 28 0.8864 0.8214 0.8906
Jimmy Howard 0.9132 415 66 0.8867 0.8182 0.8966
Malcolm Subban 0.9010 196 33 0.8878 0.8182 0.8997
Pavel Francouz 0.9234 213 22 0.9202 0.8182 0.9206
Corey Crawford 0.9179 415 54 0.9205 0.8148 0.9267
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 488 86 0.8852 0.8140 0.8931
Carter Hart 0.9125 361 28 0.9003 0.7857 0.9018
Laurent Brossoit 0.9060 201 32 0.8756 0.7813 0.8916
Keith Kinkaid 0.9054 163 27 0.8773 0.7778 0.8966
Jake Allen 0.9110 188 22 0.9043 0.7727 0.9162
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Pekka Rinne 0.9179 352 47 0.8892 0.6809 0.9156
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill