Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Tristan Jarry0.91563402730.93820.9560
Darcy Kuemper0.91836495450.93530.9431
Jake Allen0.91173052660.92460.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91336341120.92110.93750.9098
Aaron Dell0.9073270430.89260.93020.8849
Ben Bishop0.92146401120.93440.92860.9234
Robin Lehner0.9186565950.92920.92630.9213
Martin Jones0.90987241450.89090.92410.8813
Mike Smith0.9118455780.90330.92310.8979
Jaroslav Halak0.9166410350.92680.91430.9162
Alexandar Georgiev0.91774601000.92610.91000.9191
Michael Hutchinson0.9054225310.87560.83870.8788
Henrik Lundqvist0.9182605980.91070.83670.9149
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9099641900.90170.83330.9087
Curtis McElhinney0.9087284420.89790.83330.9042
Malcolm Subban0.9026353540.90080.83330.9071
Jonathan Quick0.91325811060.88810.82080.8956
Jimmy Howard0.9132415660.88670.81820.8966
Cam Talbot0.9147268330.90670.81820.9140
Jack Campbell0.9175303370.89110.81080.8960
Jake Allen0.9117305300.92460.80000.9284
Laurent Brossoit0.9076250340.89200.79410.9028
Keith Kinkaid0.9051192290.87500.79310.8900
Corey Crawford0.9175550660.90910.78790.9192
Cory Schneider0.9179176240.85230.75000.8678
Pekka Rinne0.9180447610.89710.73770.9152

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill