Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9156 340 273 0.9382 0.9560
Darcy Kuemper 0.9183 649 545 0.9353 0.9431
Jake Allen 0.9117 305 266 0.9246 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9133 634 112 0.9211 0.9375 0.9098
Aaron Dell 0.9073 270 43 0.8926 0.9302 0.8849
Ben Bishop 0.9214 640 112 0.9344 0.9286 0.9234
Robin Lehner 0.9186 565 95 0.9292 0.9263 0.9213
Martin Jones 0.9098 724 145 0.8909 0.9241 0.8813
Mike Smith 0.9118 455 78 0.9033 0.9231 0.8979
Jaroslav Halak 0.9166 410 35 0.9268 0.9143 0.9162
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9177 460 100 0.9261 0.9100 0.9191
Michael Hutchinson 0.9054 225 31 0.8756 0.8387 0.8788
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9182 605 98 0.9107 0.8367 0.9149
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9099 641 90 0.9017 0.8333 0.9087
Curtis McElhinney 0.9087 284 42 0.8979 0.8333 0.9042
Malcolm Subban 0.9026 353 54 0.9008 0.8333 0.9071
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 581 106 0.8881 0.8208 0.8956
Jimmy Howard 0.9132 415 66 0.8867 0.8182 0.8966
Cam Talbot 0.9147 268 33 0.9067 0.8182 0.9140
Jack Campbell 0.9175 303 37 0.8911 0.8108 0.8960
Jake Allen 0.9117 305 30 0.9246 0.8000 0.9284
Laurent Brossoit 0.9076 250 34 0.8920 0.7941 0.9028
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Corey Crawford 0.9175 550 66 0.9091 0.7879 0.9192
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Pekka Rinne 0.9180 447 61 0.8971 0.7377 0.9152
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill