Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9188 519 431 0.9383 0.9490
Jake Allen 0.9122 402 342 0.9303 0.9444
Chris Driedger 0.9240 135 118 0.9333 0.9407
Anton Khudobin 0.9182 482 387 0.9295 0.9406

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9078 399 59 0.8997 0.9492 0.8883
Jaroslav Halak 0.9168 542 55 0.9299 0.9455 0.9167
Robin Lehner 0.9186 840 128 0.9262 0.9375 0.9189
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9131 846 142 0.9125 0.9155 0.9062
Martin Jones 0.9097 828 163 0.8925 0.9141 0.8852
Mike Smith 0.9115 513 81 0.8928 0.9136 0.8903
Jordan Binnington 0.9232 856 135 0.9206 0.9111 0.9151
Brian Elliott 0.9120 505 69 0.9010 0.8406 0.9040
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9115 868 119 0.9067 0.8403 0.9113
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9164 1015 123 0.9222 0.8374 0.9228
Jake Allen 0.9122 402 49 0.9303 0.8367 0.9321
Jack Campbell 0.9170 379 48 0.8945 0.8333 0.8971
Carter Hutton 0.9113 492 79 0.8943 0.8228 0.9084
Michael Hutchinson 0.9056 283 39 0.8834 0.8205 0.8892
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 801 128 0.8939 0.8047 0.9024
Corey Crawford 0.9172 643 70 0.9051 0.8000 0.9123
Jimmy Howard 0.9130 490 69 0.8837 0.7971 0.8943
Laurent Brossoit 0.9063 303 39 0.8878 0.7949 0.8972
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Pekka Rinne 0.9176 627 88 0.8931 0.7500 0.9129
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill