Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Chris Driedger 0.9280 214 185 0.9346 0.9459
Tristan Jarry 0.9182 619 522 0.9338 0.9444
Anton Khudobin 0.9187 536 435 0.9328 0.9425

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9082 487 63 0.9035 0.9524 0.8923
Jaroslav Halak 0.9167 567 56 0.9277 0.9464 0.9147
Robin Lehner 0.9183 876 132 0.9224 0.9318 0.9157
Martin Jones 0.9094 857 166 0.8903 0.9157 0.8828
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9160 1135 138 0.9189 0.8406 0.9194
Carter Hart 0.9122 722 75 0.9058 0.8400 0.9063
Alex Stalock 0.9074 593 80 0.9005 0.8375 0.9051
Cam Talbot 0.9151 411 47 0.9173 0.8298 0.9207
Carter Hutton 0.9113 492 79 0.8943 0.8228 0.9084
Michael Hutchinson 0.9061 332 44 0.8916 0.8182 0.8972
Jimmy Howard 0.9129 516 76 0.8837 0.8158 0.8923
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 856 134 0.8949 0.8060 0.9030
Corey Crawford 0.9172 692 77 0.9061 0.8052 0.9128
Laurent Brossoit 0.9063 314 39 0.8885 0.7949 0.8975
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Pekka Rinne 0.9176 686 98 0.8936 0.7551 0.9127
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill