Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Anton Khudobin 0.9187 562 460 0.9324 0.9413
Tristan Jarry 0.9172 675 569 0.9304 0.9402

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Robin Lehner 0.9183 935 137 0.9230 0.9343 0.9158
Aaron Dell 0.9094 584 72 0.9092 0.9306 0.9003
Martin Jones 0.9094 857 166 0.8903 0.9157 0.8828
Mike Smith 0.9117 680 101 0.9015 0.9109 0.8980
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9100 997 129 0.9047 0.8372 0.9099
Cam Talbot 0.9153 486 49 0.9218 0.8367 0.9226
Carter Hart 0.9118 781 79 0.9052 0.8354 0.9061
John Gibson 0.9191 1090 125 0.9046 0.8320 0.9079
Carter Hutton 0.9109 526 83 0.8916 0.8313 0.9039
Corey Crawford 0.9173 753 85 0.9084 0.8235 0.9130
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 894 139 0.8960 0.8129 0.9029
Jimmy Howard 0.9126 550 84 0.8764 0.8095 0.8879
Michael Hutchinson 0.9053 349 47 0.8854 0.8085 0.8953
Laurent Brossoit 0.9054 350 45 0.8857 0.8000 0.8944
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Cory Schneider 0.9179 190 27 0.8579 0.7778 0.8697
Pekka Rinne 0.9176 748 105 0.8957 0.7524 0.9144
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill