Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Chris Driedger 0.9269 265 230 0.9321 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Robin Lehner 0.9183 999 151 0.9219 0.9338 0.9147
Aaron Dell 0.9094 651 85 0.9094 0.9176 0.9031
Martin Jones 0.9091 919 173 0.8890 0.9133 0.8831
Devan Dubnyk 0.9150 663 100 0.8929 0.8400 0.8962
Carter Hutton 0.9110 530 86 0.8925 0.8372 0.9040
Linus Ullmark 0.9111 1031 152 0.9137 0.8355 0.9171
Carter Hart 0.9118 781 79 0.9052 0.8354 0.9061
Adin Hill 0.9048 200 24 0.9200 0.8333 0.9198
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9104 1049 132 0.9056 0.8333 0.9125
Cam Talbot 0.9152 520 53 0.9192 0.8302 0.9208
Louis Domingue 0.9055 230 35 0.8826 0.8286 0.8882
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 917 145 0.8953 0.8207 0.9013
Jimmy Howard 0.9126 702 110 0.8832 0.8182 0.8929
Corey Crawford 0.9173 786 87 0.9097 0.8161 0.9147
Cory Schneider 0.9176 230 32 0.8522 0.8125 0.8594
Jack Campbell 0.9161 544 63 0.8989 0.8095 0.9029
Michael Hutchinson 0.9053 349 47 0.8854 0.8085 0.8953
Laurent Brossoit 0.9043 393 50 0.8830 0.8000 0.8918
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Pekka Rinne 0.9176 809 112 0.8974 0.7679 0.9134
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill