Skip to Content

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 13, 2020   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Anton Khudobin0.91846655420.92780.9410
Igor Shesterkin0.94072532180.94070.9404
Chris Driedger0.92692652300.93210.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Igor Shesterkin0.9407253300.94070.96670.9288
Robin Lehner0.918210691620.92140.92590.9150
Martin Jones0.90919191730.88900.91330.8831
Mike Smith0.91168261250.90190.91200.8984
Petr Mrazek0.90989501360.90110.83820.9059
John Gibson0.918812641470.90430.83670.9075
Linus Ullmark0.911110311520.91370.83550.9171
Malcolm Subban0.9017492790.89840.83540.9044
Ryan Miller0.9151499900.90980.83330.9189
Devan Dubnyk0.91487631260.89250.83330.8991
Jack Campbell0.9164669760.90280.82890.9053
Sam Montembeault0.8916244350.88930.82860.8939
Charlie Lindgren0.9070117230.88030.82610.8948
Brian Elliott0.9116738920.89840.82610.9029
Jimmy Howard0.91277841200.88900.82500.8971
Cam Talbot0.9152576570.91840.82460.9202
Jonathan Quick0.912910401470.89520.82310.8996
Adin Hill0.9067310390.91940.82050.9207
Corey Crawford0.91749151040.91150.81730.9169
Michael Hutchinson0.9050421540.88600.81480.8937
Cory Schneider0.9176230320.85220.81250.8594
Keith Kinkaid0.9051192290.87500.79310.8900
Laurent Brossoit0.9048445580.88760.79310.8975
Pekka Rinne0.91748961270.89510.77170.9115


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

Leave a comment

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Login | Register