Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Anton Khudobin 0.9184 665 542 0.9278 0.9410
Igor Shesterkin 0.9407 253 218 0.9407 0.9404
Chris Driedger 0.9269 265 230 0.9321 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Igor Shesterkin 0.9407 253 30 0.9407 0.9667 0.9288
Robin Lehner 0.9182 1069 162 0.9214 0.9259 0.9150
Martin Jones 0.9091 919 173 0.8890 0.9133 0.8831
Mike Smith 0.9116 826 125 0.9019 0.9120 0.8984
Petr Mrazek 0.9098 950 136 0.9011 0.8382 0.9059
John Gibson 0.9188 1264 147 0.9043 0.8367 0.9075
Linus Ullmark 0.9111 1031 152 0.9137 0.8355 0.9171
Malcolm Subban 0.9017 492 79 0.8984 0.8354 0.9044
Ryan Miller 0.9151 499 90 0.9098 0.8333 0.9189
Devan Dubnyk 0.9148 763 126 0.8925 0.8333 0.8991
Jack Campbell 0.9164 669 76 0.9028 0.8289 0.9053
Sam Montembeault 0.8916 244 35 0.8893 0.8286 0.8939
Charlie Lindgren 0.9070 117 23 0.8803 0.8261 0.8948
Brian Elliott 0.9116 738 92 0.8984 0.8261 0.9029
Jimmy Howard 0.9127 784 120 0.8890 0.8250 0.8971
Cam Talbot 0.9152 576 57 0.9184 0.8246 0.9202
Jonathan Quick 0.9129 1040 147 0.8952 0.8231 0.8996
Adin Hill 0.9067 310 39 0.9194 0.8205 0.9207
Corey Crawford 0.9174 915 104 0.9115 0.8173 0.9169
Michael Hutchinson 0.9050 421 54 0.8860 0.8148 0.8937
Cory Schneider 0.9176 230 32 0.8522 0.8125 0.8594
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Laurent Brossoit 0.9048 445 58 0.8876 0.7931 0.8975
Pekka Rinne 0.9174 896 127 0.8951 0.7717 0.9115
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill