Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9202 479 402 0.9415 0.9478
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9162 324 270 0.9198 0.9444
Jake Allen 0.9130 240 179 0.9292 0.9441
Laurent Brossoit 0.9086 172 137 0.9360 0.9416
Kevin Lankinen 0.9244 516 424 0.9244 0.9410
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9169 185 164 0.9243 0.9390

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 277 38 0.9025 0.9737 0.8846
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 175 27 0.9029 0.9630 0.8972
Devan Dubnyk 0.9143 232 44 0.8922 0.9545 0.8794
Philipp Grubauer 0.9197 414 66 0.9155 0.9242 0.9063
Carter Hutton 0.9099 211 26 0.8910 0.9231 0.8833
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 354 25 0.9350 0.9200 0.9242
Cam Talbot 0.9154 229 34 0.9170 0.9118 0.9081
Chris Driedger 0.9298 337 45 0.9258 0.9111 0.9170
Mike Smith 0.9118 240 33 0.9375 0.9091 0.9276
John Gibson 0.9175 497 74 0.9054 0.9054 0.9023
Michael Hutchinson 0.9065 123 21 0.9431 0.9048 0.9357
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Semyon Varlamov 0.9158 491 61 0.9267 0.9016 0.9197
Laurent Brossoit 0.9086 172 30 0.9360 0.9000 0.9298
Tristan Jarry 0.9113 439 65 0.8998 0.8308 0.9039
James Reimer 0.9131 389 70 0.9023 0.8286 0.9101
Vitek Vanecek 0.9091 517 70 0.9091 0.8286 0.9156
Ville Husso 0.8791 182 39 0.8791 0.8205 0.8884
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9167 306 55 0.8987 0.8182 0.9102
Casey DeSmith 0.9147 178 33 0.8933 0.8182 0.9060
Frederik Andersen 0.9161 454 59 0.9053 0.8136 0.9146
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9065 502 56 0.8964 0.8036 0.9024
Jake Oettinger 0.9130 184 25 0.9130 0.8000 0.9183
Thomas Greiss 0.9132 382 58 0.8848 0.7931 0.8953
Carter Hart 0.9117 403 66 0.8933 0.7879 0.9045
Jonathan Bernier 0.9125 357 41 0.9132 0.7805 0.9217
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9162 324 45 0.9198 0.7778 0.9321
David Rittich 0.9077 249 27 0.9036 0.7778 0.9147
Martin Jones 0.9085 376 60 0.8830 0.7667 0.9003
Juuse Saros 0.9162 323 55 0.8947 0.7636 0.9157
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill