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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 10, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Andrei Vasilevskiy0.92015644740.93620.9451
Michael Hutchinson0.90641511250.93380.9440
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91314363920.94270.9413
Kevin Lankinen0.91855894850.91850.9402

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Jonas Johansson0.8918154210.88960.95240.8789
Jaroslav Halak0.9165234390.91880.94870.9124
Devan Dubnyk0.9142309540.89320.94440.8827
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9131436330.94270.93940.9296
Carter Hutton0.9095240260.88330.92310.8771
Philipp Grubauer0.9198482720.91700.91670.9087
Antti Raanta0.9198237470.90300.91490.8958
Curtis McElhinney0.9086104230.89420.91300.8807
Jonathan Quick0.9131325440.89850.90910.8901
Cam Talbot0.9150286420.90560.90480.8976
Robin Lehner0.9177136310.88970.90320.8877
Alexandar Georgiev0.9111261310.89660.90320.8945
Laurent Brossoit0.9076181300.92270.90000.9163
Tristan Jarry0.9109531810.90020.82720.9049
Ville Husso0.8836232510.88360.82350.8939
Casey DeSmith0.9153202340.90100.82350.9112
Kevin Lankinen0.9185589880.91850.80680.9287
Carter Hart0.9105438690.88810.79710.8971
Joonas Korpisalo0.9061580680.89480.79410.9023
Thomas Greiss0.9130411630.88320.79370.8933
Martin Jones0.9082422720.87910.79170.8930
Frederik Andersen0.9159535650.90280.78460.9136
Jonathan Bernier0.9124388460.90980.78260.9184
David Rittich0.9077281320.90390.78130.9145
Jake Oettinger0.9156225310.91560.77420.9247
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9140366520.90440.76920.9189
Juuse Saros0.9162323550.89470.76360.9157
Marcus Hogberg0.8924220280.85910.75000.8734


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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