Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9201 564 474 0.9362 0.9451
Michael Hutchinson 0.9064 151 125 0.9338 0.9440
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9131 436 392 0.9427 0.9413
Kevin Lankinen 0.9185 589 485 0.9185 0.9402

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jonas Johansson 0.8918 154 21 0.8896 0.9524 0.8789
Jaroslav Halak 0.9165 234 39 0.9188 0.9487 0.9124
Devan Dubnyk 0.9142 309 54 0.8932 0.9444 0.8827
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9131 436 33 0.9427 0.9394 0.9296
Carter Hutton 0.9095 240 26 0.8833 0.9231 0.8771
Philipp Grubauer 0.9198 482 72 0.9170 0.9167 0.9087
Antti Raanta 0.9198 237 47 0.9030 0.9149 0.8958
Curtis McElhinney 0.9086 104 23 0.8942 0.9130 0.8807
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 325 44 0.8985 0.9091 0.8901
Cam Talbot 0.9150 286 42 0.9056 0.9048 0.8976
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9111 261 31 0.8966 0.9032 0.8945
Laurent Brossoit 0.9076 181 30 0.9227 0.9000 0.9163
Tristan Jarry 0.9109 531 81 0.9002 0.8272 0.9049
Ville Husso 0.8836 232 51 0.8836 0.8235 0.8939
Casey DeSmith 0.9153 202 34 0.9010 0.8235 0.9112
Kevin Lankinen 0.9185 589 88 0.9185 0.8068 0.9287
Carter Hart 0.9105 438 69 0.8881 0.7971 0.8971
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9061 580 68 0.8948 0.7941 0.9023
Thomas Greiss 0.9130 411 63 0.8832 0.7937 0.8933
Martin Jones 0.9082 422 72 0.8791 0.7917 0.8930
Frederik Andersen 0.9159 535 65 0.9028 0.7846 0.9136
Jonathan Bernier 0.9124 388 46 0.9098 0.7826 0.9184
David Rittich 0.9077 281 32 0.9039 0.7813 0.9145
Jake Oettinger 0.9156 225 31 0.9156 0.7742 0.9247
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9140 366 52 0.9044 0.7692 0.9189
Juuse Saros 0.9162 323 55 0.8947 0.7636 0.9157
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill