Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Petr Mrazek 0.9111 130 119 0.9615 0.9580
Jack Campbell 0.9197 252 215 0.9444 0.9535
Juuse Saros 0.9197 627 519 0.9282 0.9461
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9201 865 718 0.9306 0.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 456 76 0.9101 0.9474 0.9035
Keith Kinkaid 0.9046 175 29 0.8914 0.9310 0.8839
Cam Talbot 0.9159 620 85 0.9242 0.9294 0.9133
Jack Campbell 0.9197 252 27 0.9444 0.9259 0.9393
Robin Lehner 0.9181 271 52 0.9188 0.9231 0.9112
Antti Raanta 0.9201 379 64 0.9129 0.9219 0.9046
Philipp Grubauer 0.9209 785 143 0.9261 0.9161 0.9179
Anton Forsberg 0.9026 125 23 0.9200 0.9130 0.9126
Jonathan Quick 0.9129 428 55 0.8925 0.9091 0.8837
Jonas Johansson 0.8897 266 43 0.8872 0.9070 0.8821
Devan Dubnyk 0.9141 462 84 0.8983 0.9048 0.8942
Laurent Brossoit 0.9071 257 40 0.9144 0.9000 0.9121
Calvin Petersen 0.9232 691 120 0.9233 0.9000 0.9177
Kevin Lankinen 0.9184 931 130 0.9184 0.8308 0.9256
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 503 53 0.9165 0.8302 0.9160
Casey DeSmith 0.9168 412 58 0.9150 0.8276 0.9226
Braden Holtby 0.9153 406 52 0.8941 0.8269 0.8999
John Gibson 0.9169 739 98 0.9012 0.8265 0.9076
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9069 789 86 0.9024 0.8256 0.9049
Thomas Greiss 0.9133 652 103 0.8972 0.8252 0.9029
Tristan Jarry 0.9117 743 103 0.9058 0.8252 0.9097
David Rittich 0.9076 374 40 0.9037 0.8250 0.9074
Martin Jones 0.9091 750 97 0.9040 0.8247 0.9098
Carey Price 0.9170 638 119 0.9028 0.8235 0.9131
Pekka Rinne 0.9167 601 96 0.9002 0.8229 0.9080
Jonathan Bernier 0.9128 523 67 0.9178 0.8209 0.9233
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Carter Hart 0.9049 636 100 0.8711 0.7700 0.8876
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill