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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

April 7, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Petr Mrazek0.91111301190.96150.9580
Jack Campbell0.91972522150.94440.9535
Juuse Saros0.91976275190.92820.9461
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.92018657180.93060.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Jaroslav Halak0.9163456760.91010.94740.9035
Keith Kinkaid0.9046175290.89140.93100.8839
Cam Talbot0.9159620850.92420.92940.9133
Jack Campbell0.9197252270.94440.92590.9393
Robin Lehner0.9181271520.91880.92310.9112
Antti Raanta0.9201379640.91290.92190.9046
Philipp Grubauer0.92097851430.92610.91610.9179
Anton Forsberg0.9026125230.92000.91300.9126
Jonathan Quick0.9129428550.89250.90910.8837
Jonas Johansson0.8897266430.88720.90700.8821
Devan Dubnyk0.9141462840.89830.90480.8942
Laurent Brossoit0.9071257400.91440.90000.9121
Calvin Petersen0.92326911200.92330.90000.9177
Kevin Lankinen0.91849311300.91840.83080.9256
Jake Oettinger0.9165503530.91650.83020.9160
Casey DeSmith0.9168412580.91500.82760.9226
Braden Holtby0.9153406520.89410.82690.8999
John Gibson0.9169739980.90120.82650.9076
Joonas Korpisalo0.9069789860.90240.82560.9049
Thomas Greiss0.91336521030.89720.82520.9029
Tristan Jarry0.91177431030.90580.82520.9097
David Rittich0.9076374400.90370.82500.9074
Martin Jones0.9091750970.90400.82470.9098
Carey Price0.91706381190.90280.82350.9131
Pekka Rinne0.9167601960.90020.82290.9080
Jonathan Bernier0.9128523670.91780.82090.9233
Joey Daccord0.8937214220.89720.81820.8988
Frederik Andersen0.9154640830.89690.78310.9084
Carter Hart0.90496361000.87110.77000.8876
Marcus Hogberg0.8924220280.85910.75000.8734

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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