Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Juuse Saros 0.9200 702 587 0.9288 0.9455
Jack Campbell 0.9184 342 299 0.9298 0.9431
Jeremy Swayman 0.9256 121 104 0.9256 0.9423
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9203 937 778 0.9317 0.9422

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 456 76 0.9101 0.9474 0.9035
Keith Kinkaid 0.9046 175 29 0.8914 0.9310 0.8839
Antti Raanta 0.9201 379 64 0.9129 0.9219 0.9046
Robin Lehner 0.9179 325 59 0.9138 0.9153 0.9076
Cam Talbot 0.9158 682 102 0.9223 0.9118 0.9141
Jonathan Quick 0.9129 483 64 0.8944 0.9063 0.8855
Devan Dubnyk 0.9141 462 84 0.8983 0.9048 0.8942
Jonas Johansson 0.8981 320 52 0.9000 0.9038 0.8948
Anton Forsberg 0.9022 210 41 0.9095 0.9024 0.9039
Laurent Brossoit 0.9071 257 40 0.9144 0.9000 0.9121
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 593 71 0.9140 0.8310 0.9172
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 503 53 0.9165 0.8302 0.9160
Dan Vladar 0.8859 149 29 0.8859 0.8276 0.8931
Braden Holtby 0.9153 406 52 0.8941 0.8269 0.8999
Thomas Greiss 0.9131 686 103 0.8965 0.8252 0.9016
Kevin Lankinen 0.9150 1024 137 0.9150 0.8248 0.9219
Carey Price 0.9170 638 119 0.9028 0.8235 0.9131
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9062 829 94 0.8987 0.8191 0.9025
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
David Rittich 0.9074 402 43 0.9030 0.8140 0.9073
Marcus Hogberg 0.8930 254 37 0.8661 0.7838 0.8776
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Carter Hart 0.9045 689 105 0.8723 0.7810 0.8866
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill