Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Jeremy Swayman0.93841461180.93840.9492
Juuse Saros0.92018106810.92840.9442
Petr Mrazek0.91102141950.93930.9436
Alex Nedeljkovic0.92654724080.93220.9412
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.920210688880.92980.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Anthony Stolarz0.9134181260.92820.96150.9134
Jaroslav Halak0.9163456760.91010.94740.9035
Keith Kinkaid0.9046175290.89140.93100.8839
Robin Lehner0.9181372620.91940.91940.9117
Jonathan Quick0.9128491670.89000.91040.8807
Cam Talbot0.91587581110.92220.90990.9153
Jonas Johansson0.8981320520.90000.90380.8948
Anton Forsberg0.9022210410.90950.90240.9039
Dustin Tokarski0.9086367510.91830.90200.9136
Jake Allen0.9126545910.91380.90110.9104
Calvin Petersen0.92118091300.91970.90000.9158
Thomas Greiss0.91357581110.90240.82880.9061
Kevin Lankinen0.911510731400.91150.82860.9175
Tristan Jarry0.91158841220.90610.82790.9108
Dan Vladar0.8859149290.88590.82760.8931
Joonas Korpisalo0.9052878980.89410.82650.8975
Braden Holtby0.9155485630.90100.82540.9081
Carey Price0.91696591260.90140.82540.9117
Joey Daccord0.8937214220.89720.81820.8988
David Rittich0.9069447490.89930.81630.9039
Marcus Hogberg0.8930254370.86610.78380.8776
Frederik Andersen0.9154640830.89690.78310.9084
Carter Hart0.90537211060.87660.78300.8900
Aaron Dell0.9068139230.87050.69570.8987

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill