Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jeremy Swayman 0.9463 205 171 0.9463 0.9532
Petr Mrazek 0.9110 214 195 0.9393 0.9436
Juuse Saros 0.9200 965 819 0.9264 0.9414
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9268 570 483 0.9316 0.9400

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Anthony Stolarz 0.9134 204 28 0.9265 0.9643 0.9118
Jaroslav Halak 0.9162 461 77 0.9089 0.9351 0.9043
Keith Kinkaid 0.9046 175 29 0.8914 0.9310 0.8839
Robin Lehner 0.9182 396 66 0.9217 0.9242 0.9127
Cam Talbot 0.9162 840 128 0.9262 0.9141 0.9187
Jonathan Quick 0.9128 513 67 0.8928 0.9104 0.8833
Adin Hill 0.9081 436 62 0.9106 0.9032 0.9081
Anton Forsberg 0.9022 210 41 0.9095 0.9024 0.9039
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9118 406 40 0.9064 0.9000 0.9049
Kevin Lankinen 0.9096 1084 140 0.9096 0.8286 0.9156
Thomas Greiss 0.9140 837 122 0.9080 0.8279 0.9117
Dan Vladar 0.8859 149 29 0.8859 0.8276 0.8931
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9108 929 121 0.8999 0.8264 0.9050
Juuse Saros 0.9200 965 126 0.9264 0.8254 0.9296
Carey Price 0.9169 659 126 0.9014 0.8254 0.9117
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9051 904 103 0.8938 0.8252 0.8973
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
David Rittich 0.9069 447 49 0.8993 0.8163 0.9039
Marcus Hogberg 0.8947 300 45 0.8767 0.8000 0.8856
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Carter Hart 0.9053 721 106 0.8766 0.7830 0.8900
Aaron Dell 0.9059 154 25 0.8571 0.7200 0.8814
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill