Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jeremy Swayman 0.9420 224 188 0.9420 0.9521
Filip Gustavsson 0.9441 179 150 0.9441 0.9467
Juuse Saros 0.9202 1051 894 0.9267 0.9418
Petr Mrazek 0.9110 244 221 0.9344 0.9412
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9275 619 529 0.9321 0.9395

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Collin Delia 0.9022 118 21 0.8814 0.9524 0.8637
Anthony Stolarz 0.9137 230 33 0.9261 0.9394 0.9144
Keith Kinkaid 0.9046 175 29 0.8914 0.9310 0.8839
Jaroslav Halak 0.9161 482 81 0.9046 0.9259 0.9012
Robin Lehner 0.9179 459 68 0.9150 0.9118 0.9081
Jonathan Quick 0.9129 566 79 0.8975 0.9114 0.8881
Adin Hill 0.9091 482 65 0.9129 0.9077 0.9094
Laurent Brossoit 0.9082 337 54 0.9199 0.9074 0.9180
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9060 149 21 0.9060 0.9048 0.9016
Jack Campbell 0.9181 518 62 0.9247 0.9032 0.9211
Anton Forsberg 0.9035 241 41 0.9170 0.9024 0.9113
Philipp Grubauer 0.9200 921 174 0.9197 0.9023 0.9138
Dan Vladar 0.8859 149 29 0.8859 0.8276 0.8931
Carey Price 0.9169 659 126 0.9014 0.8254 0.9117
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9051 904 103 0.8938 0.8252 0.8973
Juuse Saros 0.9202 1051 135 0.9267 0.8222 0.9300
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9112 1021 129 0.9021 0.8217 0.9081
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
Marcus Hogberg 0.8941 322 47 0.8758 0.8085 0.8831
David Rittich 0.9071 463 52 0.9006 0.8077 0.9063
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Carter Hart 0.9053 721 106 0.8766 0.7830 0.8900
Aaron Dell 0.9059 154 25 0.8571 0.7200 0.8814
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill