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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 15, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Jake Oettinger0.91752111760.93840.9489
Anthony Stolarz0.91742732130.93040.9484
Jonathan Quick0.91344934030.93100.9429
Jack Campbell0.92186815880.93690.9422
Dan Vladar0.91012071680.92750.9405
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.92171321170.93940.9402

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

John Gibson0.9167693920.91770.95650.9054
Tristan Jarry0.9163654610.93430.95080.9235
Igor Shesterkin0.9253557920.93720.94570.9239
James Reimer0.9140471520.93630.94230.9242
Ilya Samsonov0.9101414530.91550.92450.9099
Ilya Sorokin0.9224584760.92640.92110.9226
Casey DeSmith0.9148190240.90530.91670.8981
Stuart Skinner0.9113244350.91800.91430.9141
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9102428450.90420.91110.9041
Anton Forsberg0.9033326670.90800.91040.9001
Braden Holtby0.9149404440.92330.90910.9152
Philipp Grubauer0.9172560650.88390.90770.8797
Kaapo Kahkonen0.9040199320.90450.90630.8971
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Vitek Vanecek0.9078358410.90780.82930.9108
Laurent Brossoit0.9084202290.91090.82760.9177
Karel Vejmelka0.9024461740.90240.82430.9119
Thatcher Demko0.91237621300.91730.82310.9265
Anton Khudobin0.9162181390.87290.82050.8846
Cal Petersen0.9122319500.89340.82000.9056
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Alexandar Georgiev0.9103295430.89830.81400.9088
Matt Murray0.9112173320.89020.81250.9001
Chris Driedger0.9252147210.89800.80950.9105
Sam Montembeault0.8931223400.89690.80000.9129
Brian Elliott0.9103176250.90340.80000.9113
Thomas Greiss0.9133350440.88860.79550.8988
Connor Hellebuyck0.91676811050.91480.79050.9262
Jaroslav Halak0.9160189260.90480.69230.9265


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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