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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 12, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515
Jaroslav Halak0.91612241940.91520.9433
Anthony Stolarz0.91793652800.92880.9429
Jack Campbell0.92208176980.93510.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Tristan Jarry0.9166785720.93250.94440.9221
Igor Shesterkin0.92556551080.93590.94440.9226
John Gibson0.91668661230.91690.94310.9055
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9131277300.91700.93330.9077
Stuart Skinner0.9110299420.91640.92860.9097
James Reimer0.9132583690.91600.92750.9094
Ilya Sorokin0.9217637790.92460.91140.9216
Sergei Bobrovsky0.91657521210.91890.90910.9140
Anton Forsberg0.9035391770.90790.90910.9005
Ville Husso0.9069260320.93080.90630.9220
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9088646630.89780.90480.8965
Juuse Saros0.92179371650.92850.90300.9241
Frederik Andersen0.9160620820.92900.90240.9218
Antti Raanta0.9191218300.90830.90000.9099
Sam Montembeault0.8923346710.89310.83100.9066
Scott Wedgewood0.8995510760.89410.82890.8993
Kevin Lankinen0.9041319580.88400.82760.8960
Jake Oettinger0.9147286340.92310.82350.9239
Chris Driedger0.9223232390.89220.82050.9027
Anton Khudobin0.9162181390.87290.82050.8846
Laurent Brossoit0.9071330500.90000.82000.9109
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Connor Hellebuyck0.91658611250.91290.80000.9225
Thomas Greiss0.9133436520.89450.78850.9054
Jaroslav Halak0.9161224270.91520.70370.9312


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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