Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 2, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515
Igor Shesterkin	0.9293	1093	910	0.9405	0.9418
Pavel Francouz	0.9227	315	269	0.9206	0.9405
Jeremy Swayman	0.9339	652	542	0.9294	0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Spencer Martin	0.9159	118	21	0.9576	0.9524	0.9428
James Reimer	0.9133	1045	123	0.9158	0.9512	0.9056
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
Igor Shesterkin	0.9293	1093	163	0.9405	0.9264	0.9299
Craig Anderson	0.9127	409	50	0.9046	0.9200	0.8991
Anton Forsberg	0.9069	698	125	0.9169	0.9200	0.9076
John Gibson	0.9160	1231	187	0.9115	0.9144	0.9038
Ville Husso	0.9169	599	81	0.9349	0.9136	0.9250
Frederik Andersen	0.9165	1079	137	0.9296	0.9124	0.9209
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9082	663	67	0.8944	0.9104	0.8928
Semyon Varlamov	0.9163	452	76	0.9137	0.9079	0.9088
Michael Houser	0.9174	77	21	0.9481	0.9048	0.9479
Anthony Stolarz	0.9150	533	102	0.9174	0.9020	0.9147
Tristan Jarry	0.9148	1238	130	0.9208	0.9000	0.9158
Thatcher Demko	0.9134	1312	213	0.9184	0.8310	0.9256
Laurent Brossoit	0.9073	496	68	0.9032	0.8235	0.9112
Cal Petersen	0.9113	591	85	0.8985	0.8235	0.9072
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Braden Holtby	0.9145	658	71	0.9119	0.8169	0.9142
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9092	532	69	0.8966	0.8116	0.9045
Pavel Francouz	0.9227	315	37	0.9206	0.8108	0.9290
Thomas Greiss	0.9131	553	67	0.8951	0.8060	0.9034
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
Chris Driedger	0.9191	392	66	0.8929	0.8030	0.9074
Cayden Primeau	0.8728	291	30	0.8660	0.8000	0.8715
David Rittich	0.9061	218	32	0.8899	0.7813	0.9010
Aaron Dell	0.9045	354	44	0.8927	0.7273	0.9092
Jaroslav Halak	0.9155	282	31	0.8830	0.7097	0.8992

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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