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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 2, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515
Igor Shesterkin0.929310939100.94050.9418
Pavel Francouz0.92273152690.92060.9405
Jeremy Swayman0.93396525420.92940.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Spencer Martin0.9159118210.95760.95240.9428
James Reimer0.913310451230.91580.95120.9056
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9131277300.91700.93330.9077
Igor Shesterkin0.929310931630.94050.92640.9299
Craig Anderson0.9127409500.90460.92000.8991
Anton Forsberg0.90696981250.91690.92000.9076
John Gibson0.916012311870.91150.91440.9038
Ville Husso0.9169599810.93490.91360.9250
Frederik Andersen0.916510791370.92960.91240.9209
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9082663670.89440.91040.8928
Semyon Varlamov0.9163452760.91370.90790.9088
Michael Houser0.917477210.94810.90480.9479
Anthony Stolarz0.91505331020.91740.90200.9147
Tristan Jarry0.914812381300.92080.90000.9158
Thatcher Demko0.913413122130.91840.83100.9256
Laurent Brossoit0.9073496680.90320.82350.9112
Cal Petersen0.9113591850.89850.82350.9072
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Braden Holtby0.9145658710.91190.81690.9142
Alexandar Georgiev0.9092532690.89660.81160.9045
Pavel Francouz0.9227315370.92060.81080.9290
Thomas Greiss0.9131553670.89510.80600.9034
Anton Khudobin0.9161231460.87880.80430.8926
Chris Driedger0.9191392660.89290.80300.9074
Cayden Primeau0.8728291300.86600.80000.8715
David Rittich0.9061218320.88990.78130.9010
Aaron Dell0.9045354440.89270.72730.9092
Jaroslav Halak0.9155282310.88300.70970.8992


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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