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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 9, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515
Igor Shesterkin0.930412049890.94190.9424
Pavel Francouz0.92254023450.92040.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Spencer Martin0.9159118210.95760.95240.9428
James Reimer0.913310451230.91580.95120.9056
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9131277300.91700.93330.9077
Igor Shesterkin0.930412041920.94190.93230.9304
John Gibson0.915412791930.90700.91710.8997
Anton Forsberg0.90888111540.92110.91560.9129
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9082663670.89440.91040.8928
Ville Husso0.9152660880.93030.90910.9214
Anthony Stolarz0.91405741070.91460.90650.9105
Michael Houser0.917477210.94810.90480.9479
Frederik Andersen0.916411121460.92810.90410.9206
Semyon Varlamov0.9161539810.91090.90120.9063
Thatcher Demko0.913113772150.91720.82790.9242
Braden Holtby0.9146700810.91290.82720.9144
Cal Petersen0.9122685920.90360.82610.9104
Mike Smith0.9116450840.89110.82140.9039
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Pavel Francouz0.9225402470.92040.80850.9278
Laurent Brossoit0.9066520730.90000.80820.9104
Anton Khudobin0.9161231460.87880.80430.8926
Alexandar Georgiev0.9085560710.89290.80280.9018
Cayden Primeau0.8728291300.86600.80000.8715
Thomas Greiss0.9126579710.88770.78870.8982
Chris Driedger0.9169438740.88810.78380.9053
David Rittich0.9061218320.88990.78130.9010
Nico Daws0.9057244220.90570.72730.9136
Aaron Dell0.9045354440.89270.72730.9092
Jaroslav Halak0.9155282310.88300.70970.8992


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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