Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 16, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515
Pavel Francouz	0.9225	402	345	0.9204	0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
James Reimer	0.9133	1079	127	0.9157	0.9528	0.9061
Spencer Martin	0.9159	118	21	0.9576	0.9524	0.9428
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
Igor Shesterkin	0.9287	1254	202	0.9378	0.9307	0.9268
Anton Forsberg	0.9074	872	162	0.9163	0.9136	0.9085
John Gibson	0.9152	1375	203	0.9055	0.9113	0.8991
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9082	663	67	0.8944	0.9104	0.8928
Anthony Stolarz	0.9156	614	108	0.9186	0.9074	0.9136
Frederik Andersen	0.9165	1141	149	0.9290	0.9060	0.9213
Michael Houser	0.9174	77	21	0.9481	0.9048	0.9479
Antti Raanta	0.9193	459	62	0.9172	0.9032	0.9144
Semyon Varlamov	0.9162	600	81	0.9117	0.9012	0.9063
Tristan Jarry	0.9154	1373	140	0.9221	0.9000	0.9165
Braden Holtby	0.9146	700	81	0.9129	0.8272	0.9144
Mike Smith	0.9116	450	84	0.8911	0.8214	0.9039
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Laurent Brossoit	0.9053	588	85	0.8946	0.8118	0.9043
Cal Petersen	0.9111	712	94	0.9003	0.8085	0.9091
Pavel Francouz	0.9225	402	47	0.9204	0.8085	0.9278
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9082	601	76	0.8918	0.8026	0.9008
David Rittich	0.9063	246	34	0.8943	0.7941	0.9028
Cayden Primeau	0.8737	302	32	0.8675	0.7813	0.8751
Nico Daws	0.9088	329	27	0.9088	0.7778	0.9115
Chris Driedger	0.9157	465	76	0.8860	0.7763	0.9037
Thomas Greiss	0.9124	628	76	0.8869	0.7763	0.8987
Aaron Dell	0.9045	354	44	0.8927	0.7273	0.9092
Jaroslav Halak	0.9155	282	31	0.8830	0.7097	0.8992

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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